Wednesday will be another day where we will have some decent severe parameters in place with temperatures in the 86-95 degree range across these areas for the most part. Dewpoints are very moist with them being in the 60s and 70s.
Severe Parameters are once again 500-5000 depending on where you are located.
LI is 0 to –10 depending on where you are located
SWEAT index as high as 500-600 in some locations
EHI is not that high across the region. We will monitor this though on future runs between this afternoon and tomorrow morning to see if that changes. Anticipate that it might change and get stronger in some locales especially where the higher SWEAT is. While we normally use the NAM with the severe weather aspects because of the higher resolution one has to throw a red flag when one sees a lower resolution SWEAT index in a much greater expansive area.
Notice the huge difference between the NAM/GFS. This time we would have to be leaning more towards a SREF/GFS blend with some aspects of the NAM..
The west coast trough will continue to slowly make its way towards the east.
Low pressure off the NE coast will continue to act as a blocking feature. This will keep the Northeast region in a cooler flow compared to the Southwest. This complex frontal system connected to a triple point low will continue to be the focus of which severe weather will be along. The CAP that was in place is now essentially broken so we expect the day wednesday to be a much more active severe weather day.
Depending on the EHI in place (which we will monitor) it should be a day that has more tornado potential but this would be located in the SW more then the SE.
Stay tuned for more information!
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