May 8th Final Severe Update

CAPE is 500-5000 depending on your location

LI is anywhere from 0 to negative 12 depending on your location

SWEAT index is as high as 600-700 and this is confined to Eastern KS, Eastern Nebraska and into Eastern OK. This is the region that should see the most highest chance of severe weather.

EHI is also 1 to as much as 2 + in the same area but also including SW Mo. This signifies that they could also be in the highest chance zone.

Mid Level Lapse rates are also favorable at around 7-8

We also have a front that may serve as a focal point for convection draped across the SE that will begin to move off towards the North.

All the ingredients are in place for severe weather !

However, there is the CAP..

Current thinking is that severe storms will be slow to initiate and develop but as the warm front moves North this should help to erode the CAP and moisten the air. This means that convection should begin to pick up later afternoon early evening.

At the same time a mid level impulse or wave will also be dropping into this region and this should also help in the formation of convection.

The biggest threat appears to be hail and with strong SWEAT and EHI we have to lay out the possibility of tornados.

Further to the east into the TN/KY area: the focus there will be the front draped across the area and its northward movement. West Southwesterly flow at the surface and west northwesterly flow aloft  and favorable mid level lapse rates would seem to support storms capable of Hail as the primary threat ..