When we look at guidance for the early part of the week we have to turn to the 850 temps. When we do this we realize that guidance is suggesting that its going to get ‘Hot & Humid”! Guidance is indicating that temperatures at the 850 level will be in the +15-20 degree range. This means at the surface temperatures are going to be between 80-90, perhaps higher in some parts.
So lets look at 120 hours out on the models from 12 Z
The above is the ECM . Lets look at the GFS..we are going to use the ensemble means because the images from the operational were not available:
Aside from the usual timing issues at day 5-7 you can see that the guidance is in agreement on ridging moving into and across the central part of the US and into the east. However what happens? Lets watch..
European computer model is suggesting that there is going to be a strong cold front that knocks the temperatures at the 850 level from + 15-20 to about +6-8. What about the GFS?
As you can see the GFS also suggests the same thing. So the two main models are in relative agreement.
So essentially what we are looking at on the guidance as far as synoptic setup is as follows:
Temperatures out ahead of the front and associated trough will be in the 80-90 degree range!
Temperatures behind the front will be some 20 degrees cooler
Upper trough ejecting from the west to the east over top of the ridge
Surface low deepening as it moves into the Dakotas with trailing cold front…
Though we are not going to depend on any type of parameters the models have in place at this time ..if the guidance is correct we could be looking at a severe weather outbreak starting in the mid west into the southern regions and then heading towards the east into the Northeast.
Essentially if the right parameters fall into place ..with the kind of temperature drop indicated ..we could be looking at an explosive situation. Sort of like a keg of dynamite waiting for the spark to the fuse!
Stay tuned for more information!
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