As we have been talking about for a couple days now another outbreak of severe weather is going to start taking shape as heights start to build and spread towards the north and east along with the warm temperatures.
Latest NAM has the following showing for parameters..
CAPE
4000-5000 being the highest value
Lift index as high as –12 to –14
SWEAT index as high as 600
EHI has high as 3.5
Surface temperatures are evident of the heat building across the region.
Dewpoints are in the 60s to 70 range.
Now there are a couple things that could hinder the development of the storms. First ..the 700 mb RG level is rather dry across the area. The other potential to hinder the storms is there could actually be a CAP in place. However, with such strong instability and lift in the atmosphere we feel that the storms should be able to take place. They may however be slow to occur and form at first.
Right now we are not pointing out a zone as the hot spot..however with that said and looking at current parameters between the NAM/SREF that area very well could be extreme eastern Ok, N -Central ARK and SW to South Central MO.
So with that all above said …Here is the preliminary map..
We feel that the stronger updrafts will have the potential for tornados with the parameters that are showing but we will fine tune this as we get closer and determine more precisely how strong the CAP in place is etc..
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