Severe Potential May Shift Focus To The East

Dewpoints in the 60-70 range

Lift Index –2 to –8

CAPE - 500-2500 Highest  south lowest North

400-450 SWEAT index

EHI is 1.2 –2.5 across the region..

Wind shear : 50-60 KT LLJ

Trigger: Approaching cold front and Upper Level Trough

No folks, we are not basing this on a model that claims to have  taken a sample out of yesterdays atmosphere over GA/ Alabama region…rather we are basing this severe potential off the severe weather parameters that are in place across the region as being shown by the most recent 00z guidance.

As this area moves off towards the NE it will be responsible for some very heavy rains. It is possible for some storms north of the area but with the general lack of any parameters in place…we have opted to take the NON SEVERE approach above the MD border..

The most likely area for the severe should be in the red zone as this is where parameters are highest. This could also be the area that receives the best chance of tornados with the EHI across that region being quite high.

Please folks if you are in these regions keep an eye to the sky and as usual we will be on Facebook on Dr Greg Forbes page helping people thru the severe weather.

We are proud to pass on the fact that we helped out a mother of a 6 month old child in W KY where a tornado warned cell was in her vicinity. With experience and latest base reflectivity radar, radial velocity radar we were able to be with her every moment of the storm and let her know that it would pass by her safely to the north while she got passed by to the south with another storm. We were glad to be there and help her thru that frightening time!

Folks it is important to keep in mind that a Tornado watch when issued means that conditions are favorable but not a guarantee of a tornado happening.

Be ware as some folks out there claiming to be pro mets are scaring people by telling them that they guarantee a tornado is heading there way etc. Stay clear away from these type of people!

Here at Real Wx Services we have been upfront and honest from day 1 in the fact that we do not operate with a Meteorological degree..but we do operate with over 20 years of experience forecasting the weather and nearly 36 years of passion and desire of following the weather! We are far from perfect as weather forecasting is not an exact science so we learn daily.

Stay tuned for more information if it becomes necessary on this system

Updated Map For Mid Atlantic & NE Rainfall for the 16th-17th

Pretty much all guidance is suggesting a widespread rainfall of 1-2 inches within the time period.  This rainfall is mainly expected to fall within a 12 hr period. Mainly from Saturday afternoon into the overnight hrs or sunday morning. With this amount of rainfall falling in a short time we should see flash flood warnings come into play if these amounts are realized and the guidance is correct.

In addition there may be some gusty winds with this rainfall as it will have a convective element to it. There may also be some thunderstorms involved but we are not expecting anything severe. Any storms would just enhance the rainfall across the region that received them.

Next Chance At Severe Weather In PA

Though we are talking about a week away from today…guidance is suggesting that the area could be in for the chance once again at severe weather. It continues to be very early in the season but never the less certain signs are showing up.

First guidance is showing another area of low pressure that will be moving from the Southwest towards the NE. Associated with this area of low pressure will be an associated upper level trough and a strong cold front..

The above is the European Computer model at 144 hrs out and 168 hrs out. Notice how in front of the area of low pressure it moves ridging into the region? This would bring southerly flow out ahead of the cold front once again and temperatures would end up going above normal. To early to say if they would be record temps. However notice the much cooler air at the 850 level by 168 hrs?

The GFS is in somewhat similar agreement with the European guidance…

GFS also brings the ridging into the region and also has the low pressure area but its weaker on the air behind the front. 18 Z GFS basically falls under the same category as the 12 Z..

So the models are in agreement that there will be a system coming thru the region with an approaching cold front but the differences in strength of the cooler air behind that front are what is different.

Essentially the pattern continues of wet and cool followed by a day or two of milder air before another system and cold front move thru.

Stay tuned for more information on this time period…

Severe Weather In the South Central and Plains

Just a slight change to the map that was previously made and that is with some of the latest guidance expanding some of the severe parameters to the north we have decided to expand the yellow severe zone northwards from the original issuance..

April 15th-16th Rainfall

Low pressure is going to be making its way across the middle part of the country. As this low pressure makes its way to the East before moving NNE ..it will be responsible for producing Thunderstorms which could be severe across parts of the Southern Plains states southward into TX and LA as an attending cold front moves off to the east.  This area of low pressure and its cold front will be the weather maker across the Northeast from late friday the 15th thru the 16th and then further north it will effect the weather into the 17th.

We are not anticipating any thunderstorms for this part of the region but we are anticipating a decent amount of rain with a stripe of 1-2 inches across parts of the region and elsewhere up to an inch.

Temperatures will be milder out ahead of this front but nothing like we seen last time where some record highs were set. Temperatures ahead of this front will be more seasonal to slightly above seasonal..

April 14th Daily Weather Discussion

High temperature on the 13th of April was 49 degrees. This was actually below normal for this time of the year. Yes its been pretty much a cool wet spring but then again we have been saying that this was going to be the case and there is some indication that the month of MAY will also end up being a below normal month..

Basically today will depend on where you are. For example if you are in NY state and points north and east you may still have some showers left over from the cut off area of low pressure that is now moving away from the area. However if you are as far north as Maine you may be dealing with some frozen precipitation in the overnight and early morning hours . By afternoon about the only area that could still be seeing any precipitation could still be Maine in the form of rain showers by that time.

The rest of the region you could say is in a transition zone waiting for the next weather maker to move in so it will generally be partly sunny..

Across the northern and central areas of the NE temps will be in the mid 40s to the mid 50s ..elsewhere across the region things will be once again warming up with temps generally in the 60s to perhaps near 70 from Southern PA into SNJ and south of there into MD..

Enjoy this day as it is one of the very few before the next rainmaker moves in to the region. Later today we will be issuing a map so you can know what rainfall totals to expect from this next system.

Severe Weather April 14th in the South Central US

I included the severe parameters on the map this time around instead of making them part of the post. This whole area will move off towards the east on Friday.

At this point and time we do not see the need to extend anything further north because the parameters are all focused right in the region where we have them. If you are further north of the zone highlighted its possible that you may have thunderstorms but without the threat of it turning severe.

As indicated by the red zone this is the area where the SWEAT index is quite high and this could result in some good tornados across that region. Of course this is all based as of the latest data and since we are still 24 hrs out this could change.

Stay tuned for further updates!