First invest of the tropical season is located around 25N73W. Needless to say there is alot of talk and speculation on what is going to happen with this particular invest. NHC seems to think that it will dissipate over the next 24 hours and develop a new low center further to the east. And from there will deepen and organize. This they think will happen within the next 72 hours.
While this is a possibility ..I basically believe that right now there is too much that is currently stacked against this from deepening .
You can see the current shear and the amount of dry air that is around the invest. Shear is 50-60 knots. So i do agree with the aspect of this invest will die out. However..even if it reforms to the east…by 250 miles as the current thinking is you are still dealing with shear between 30-50 knots . Dry air is also increasing out ahead of this system off the South east coast.
So what I think at this current time is that it is going to remain a weak disorganized system that will slowly head off towards the west towards the SE coast. In particular the Carolinas. Too early too say if it makes landfall or not considering its strength is totally up in the air.
It will be interesting to see if the warmer then normal SSTS can overcome the other features that are hindering the development currently.
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