Real Wx Services has been watching the way this spring has been unfolding and it seems as if this pattern is becoming a little too familiar. In other words, it almost appears as if we have experienced this before..slightly different in timing but similar results.
This is April 2009
As you can see pretty much the vast majority of the region ended up above normal.
Now lets flash forward to April of 2010
Obviously April of 2010 has been warmer but the same theme of above normal across the region is in both years.
With the above similarities one has to wonder if we are not still in a wash rinse and repeat pattern. If that is indeed the case then it argues to follow that the month of May 2010 should come out similar to the month of May in 2009.
This would generally imply seasonal to below seasonal with pockets of above normal in isolated locations.
Now so far May 2010 looks like this..
Many locations are well above normal. However, as if on time, models are suggesting well below normal temperatures with a amplified trough in the east around the 9th of the month
And keeping that trough in place thru the 13th before another trough reinforces that original trough and presents an Omega block.
If this scenario occurs we would be looking at an extended period of below to well below normal temperatures which would counteract the first few days of May and once again knock the departures back down to seasonal to below with pockets of above.
So while the ENSO may be weakening..getting close to neutral status.. the pattern itself has not changed which may suggest that we are indeed going to head back into neutral category ENSO wise…for AMJ.. before if weather history is correct..we slide right back into a weak El Nino and a potential repeat of last summer.
No comments:
Post a Comment