Low pressure is beginning to take shape this evening down over the south central states as of 00z this evening. This low will lift NE and should be positioned over central Tennessee by 12 Z Wednesday. By 00z Thursday we should have a dual structure low with the primary over NE KY and a secondary developing to the southeast of the primary over the Carolina regions.
The primary should lift north into Ohio while the secondary should track right across SE PA.
With no blocking this is going to be a relatively quick moving system..however it will bring a swath of heavy rains and winter precipitation. The air mass that is out ahead of this storm is not fresh cold arctic air but rather modified cold air from the last shot of Arctic air that went thru.Southwesterly flow /WAA warm air advection will flow into and across the region ..
We will have some CAD in effect ..this CAD will basically effect the higher elevations (NOT SHOWN on the map) where they could have a wintery mix..for snowfall you are going to have to go to NNY state and points NE.This is where the 540 line is located. In places like NE PA you potentially could see a wintery mix but we are expecting a change over to rain. We are expecting snowfall to be in the range from 1-4 inches in the southern locations to 4-8 inches in the more northern locations.
The big cities of the Northeast and I 95 corridor we are expecting all rain with anywhere from 1-2 inches. Colder air will come in behind this system & we will talk about that aspect of the forecast later tonight…
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