In addition to this map above:
NYC 1-3 inches snow to wintery mix
CT 4-8 inches mainly snow-some sleet (away from coast)
NW NJ 4-8 inches
Central NJ 3-5 inches with .10 ice potential
SNJ and south less then an inch with a turn to rain
Discussion: This is what we like to call a southwest flow event . What this means is that this is a purely driven warm air advection event meaning warmer air flowing in aloft over top of the colder air at the surface..
Cold air is being supplied by a shot of arctic air ..however this arctic air is not nearly as impressive as the arctic air that came in at the beginning of January. So this is really a modified arctic air mass in place with a mediocre high pressure to the North but ..cold enough that we will see a moderate snow storm in what has been an overall warmer winter. We will take what we can get I guess you could say.
Guidance such as the ECM does bring the 540 line to close to the Lehigh Valley region and the GFS and ECM also bring close to or slightly above freezing at the 925 mb level which is the reason for the winter mix expectation as well as the snow!
By 12 Z Saturday morning a weak wave of low pressure will be located over eastern KY with a warm front extending to the east of it. This low will generally move in a east northeast fashion...to a position east SE of Long Island NY by Saturday evening.
What could go wrong?
1.Models tend to under do mid level warming ..so if the mid level warming ends up being stronger then snow totals would be lower and ice would be more of a factor..
2. Winds will be out of the east. This means that the boundary temperatures could end up being progged to cold ...
This is not exactly the most perfect set up ..it is more a threading the needle type scenario.
As is we expect start time to be between midnight and 3 AM and end time to be before midnight on Saturday night.
Travel will become tricky and slippery so if you have to be out and about take caution!
We encourage all members to post and submit snow totals on the page as well as snow photos on the page!
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