Seems we have a severe weather episode on our hands today the 22ND. A upper level trough will be moving out of the Rocky Mountain region towards the east and the guidance shows a strong lower level jet of at least 70 knots and a upper level low should close off over the Midwest. This should cause moisture return over the region.
GFS is also showing dew points across the region in the 60s to around 70 across the region.
Mid level lapse rates will be 6.0-6.5
CAPE or convective potential energy is not all that impressive only up to about 1500
Lift Index is as negative as -8 across parts of the region
The interaction between the mid level jet being just as strong as the low level jet should create sufficient low level shear.
Another factor is the SWEAT index.. this is one of the indicators that we like to look at to determine tornado potential and on the NAM at 00z we see that the area from Eastern TN to ARK and south into Louisiana is at 400 or above. When looking at the GFS we also see that same general region under high SWEAT of 400 or above.
Yet one other factor for tornados is the Energy Helicity Index and you generally want to see this at 1.0 or above and that would cover the SE part of ARK and into Louisiana on the 00z NAM. So these regions should be the greatest threat for tornados while the rest of the region should be more along the lines of straight line winds and large hail.
In addition to all the above the culprit or trigger will be a strong cold front which will be clashing into warmer moist air and this cold front should be thru the region shown above by 7 AM Monday morning.
If you are in these areas be on the look out for severe weather and as always if you see a tornado warning or a tornado on the ground and headed towards you take shelter immediately!
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