Pattern Update as of 1/10/13

Let us start off by taking a look at where we have been for the first 9 days of the month of January

Majority of the region has been above normal...some areas are still somewhat below normal but these are confined to Northern New England and over western PA to ohio and WV where it is seasonal to slightly below but keep in mind that this is BEFORE the real warm up occurs...
To give you an example here is Day 3 Max temperatures from HPC as of this morning update

These will spike the departures to the positive side even more then what they should be and keep in mind that majority of your weather outlets were calling for a change to colder weather come January based off the CFS showing a colder January. This has not been the case and the reason why is quite simple..

The PNA is shown to be extremely negative .This in combination with the MJO being into phase 5. 

Leads to this type of look..

So the question becomes where are we going? There is no doubt that over the next 4-5 days we are going to continue to be above normal and that takes us thru the first half of the month of January. So can January be salvaged? Is there a pattern change on the way?
This is all going to be dependent on what happens with the MJO and the skill of the models forecasting the MJO is not to reliable and can change from day to day but as of right now they are mainly suggesting that after a stint in Phase 7

The MJO could be heading back into or at least looping thru Phase 6 which would show the following:

So lets look at the MJO forecasts but before we do lets just take a look at the skill of the forecasts via the verification of the MJO

So with that in mind lets look at the forecasts...

The full plume of the NCEP GEFS loops the MJO thru Phase 6 and stays in Phase 6. 

And even looking at this image of the NCEP GEFS it shows a brief stint in phase 7 before moving back into phase 6. This would indicate a shot of colder air followed by moderation in temps before perhaps heading back to phase 7 for a shot of colder air again...

UKMET takes the MJO into phase 7 which would definitely represent a colder temperature regime.

ECM takes it into and thru Phase 6 (warmer) and then briefly into phase 7 (colder) and then back into Phase 6 (warmer) ..

ECM ensembles more or less take it between phases 6 and 7 straddling the border and do a loop into 6 before going back into 7 ..in other words a return to colder weather ..then briefly moderating before back to colder weather..

GGEM shows the MJO staying in phase 6. Which would indicate solely on the MJO more in the way of milder weather. 
So as you can see the verification of the MJO forecasts has not been great and they are basically either saying Phase 7 or phase 7 before heading back to phase 6. 

So now lets look at the actual teleconnections and then we will take a look at the actual model guidance..
As we noted the PNA is currently negative or forecasted to go negative if using CPC

The AO is slightly positive right now but anticipated to go negative but then the members are kind of divided on whether it stays negative or goes back positive..

Most members show it staying negative and a couple quite negative. 

And essentially the same thing can be said about the NAO with it being slightly positive right now but heading into the negative territory. However a few members show going back positive. And then we have the EPO which according to this graph 

Is more of a neutral negative then going completely negative ..and then is more of a neutral positive. 

Remember to really get sustained cold weather into the east you want to see the following:
A negative AO (check)
A negative NAO (check) 
A negative EPO (somewhat check)
And a positive PNA (not checked) 
MJO into Phases 7 ,8 or 1 with 8 or 1 being the best for East Coast storms. (somewhat uncertain)
So lets look at the guidance...

This is the 12 Z European Computer guidance and it brings the coldest of the air into the Mid Atlantic and the Northeast at 216 hrs out and then lifts the coldest of the air into New England by 240 hours out. 
This run is actually warmer over the midwest then last nights 00z ECM run as this image will show..

The GFS shows the coldest of the air actually over the Midwest region during the same time as the ECM above.. except at 192 hours out when it is in the NE region..

But by the 11-15 day range it begins to warm up.. on the operational and looking at the ensembles..

And if you look at the ensembles from the past three runs you can see this as well..
Here was 00z 

Here was 6 Z 

So are we heading into a Major pattern change or are we looking at a transient shot of colder air? With the PNA remaining strongly negative and the MJO moving thru the warm phases and looking to go into phase 7 briefly before heading back towards phase 6.. the most logical conclusion based on teleconnections would be to expect a return to colder weather (but transient) before moderating once again to more seasonal temperatures to perhaps slightly above seasonal to end out the month of January. 
If we were to get the PNA to go positive while the NAO is negative and the AO is negative with a negative EPO we could then be talking about a more sustained shot of colder weather. Its all dependent on the PNA and the MJO and we will continue to monitor this and update this .
Presently looks like a transient shot of colder air followed by moderation (notice this does not mean warm it just means not as cold as it will be at around 216 hrs out)...so we can not at this point and time call this a pattern change until we see what the PNA and the MJO actually do. If the MJO makes it into phase 7 and progresses thru to 8 and 1 then we could have a Major pattern change but right now none of the guidance is suggesting that so we can not be forecasting that to occur.
Meanwhile it will be warm with temperatures into the 50s and maybe near 60 which is well above normal for this time of the year as much as 20 degrees above normal and a rain event early next week before the colder air arrives. The only frozen could be North of NYC ...other wise New England region.