Pattern Update & What To Look For

We are going to start this off simply by saying the one thing that sets us apart from the rest is that we refuse to hype the weather. We refuse to wishcast the weather. We prefer instead to bring you forecasts that are based on guidance and teleconnections and NOT what we want to happen or what we want to SEE happen. With that preface and in order to understand where we are going lets look at the current MJO or Madden Julian Oscillation and what it means for us. There is no sugar coating it just straight out facts with graphs to back it up..

One image is for the last 90 days and one image is for the last 40 days. One takes us to the 3rd and one takes us to the 4th..However...what they both have in common is that they both show the MJO in phase 4. What does phase 4 mean?

Phase 4 for the month of January is above and you can see that if you are a cold and snow lover you do NOT want the MJO to be in phase 4. What about phase 5? 

Well if phase 4 was not what we wanted we can see that phase 5 is also not something cold and snow lovers would want. 
The same thing can be said for phase 6..

So..if you are a cold and snow lover where do you want the MJO to be? 

You want to see the MJO in phases 7 or 8 preferably or phases 1 and 2. But we are not there. We are currently in phase 4. This means the MJO forecast would be for temperatures to be above normal across the east and no surprise this is what the guidance is showing and suggesting to occur..
Lets look at the weekend on the ECM..

GFS is not much different from the ECM at least in the look across the country with the 850 temps , though it is slightly cooler.. 

This is because the GFS is more progressive in nature and tends to rush colder air situations. But you can see across the east it is warm and above normal and folks this is because of the MJO. 

So based ONLY on the MJO you need to see the MJO progress into the more favorable phases of 7.8 or 1 and 2. However this is only one piece of the puzzle...

Right now we have a neutral positive NAO but this is forecast to go negative. This is a positive thing for those who want cold and snow across the east.

The AO is right around neutral and is forecasted by most members to plummet...this is another good thing for those who want cold and snow across the east...

So what is the problem one may ask...why is it we can not get the cold sustained into the east? Because there is a little devil in the details and that devil is called the PNA..

The PNA is forecasted to go quite negative over the next several days. Still yet one other small detail is the EPO. Which is positive presently...

So what happens when you have a - NAO and a - AO and a - PNA with a positive EPO  (even IF the EPO goes negative) is you get a release of colder air into the USA that sets up the trough to the west of the east coast ..centered over the central to western part of the conus and you get a Southeast ridge in the east due to the - PNA. 
With this setup you have storms that will cut to the west of all the major cities of the NE and head towards the lakes ..and produce warmer temperatures along with rain...

So what do you want to look for if you are a cold and snow lover in the east? 

1. A negative NAO  (Check)
2. A negative AO (check)
3. A positive PNA (nope)
4. A negative EPO (nope) 
5 Favorable MJO phases of 7,8 or 1, 2 (Nope) 

This is why NOAA has released these images and this is what the guidance supports. This is what the MJO supports and this is what the teleconnections support. 
This is simple straight hard facts backed up with the teleconnections and guidance.

Now does the pattern become more favorable after the 20th? This is going to be highly dependent on what the - PNA decides to do while we have a favorable NAO and AO. Other wise the favorable NAO and AO could just go to waste ....

As for now...its going to be above normal and temperatures will moderate even more by the weekend with temperatures going into the 50s in places like KPHL, ABE etc ....