The Reality Of Weather

Folks we figured we would take the time and post an update in regards to the pattern. We are going to touch on what we have been saying? Where we are going? Where we have been? And its going to be based on indisputable facts. 

First off lets look at November of 2012 

What we see here is that we had a below normal month on the east coast ..at least from NY to Florida. Seasonal north of that location and then in the west it was seasonal to above seasonal weather.
Along came December of 2012

What happened? Before we answer that we need to answer when does winter begin?
First Definition defined below in Wiki:
 Winter is often defined by meteorologists to be the three calendar months with the lowest average temperatures. This corresponds to the months of December, January and February in the Northern Hemisphere,

December 1st marks the first day of meteorological winter (source) 

Meteorological winter begins Saturday (Dec. 1), (source) 

Meteorologists, however, observe seasons over different time periods. Meteorological winter begins December 1, spring begins March 1, summer begins June 1 and fall begins September 1.   (source)

So as you can see from the sources above in the world of Meteorology winter begins on December 1st and consists of the months of Dec, Jan and Feb.

So what happened above in December? We had a reversal of the weather pattern and the east went warm and the west was seasonal to above seasonal and there was even a record warm month in the mix in december. 

This was the opposite of what majority of your weather outlets saw coming as they foresaw a colder december (Us included) ... December passes and we head into January..

This is just the first 13 days and it does not include yesterday the 14th where temperatures were in the 50s and 60s so this map is only going to get warmer in the departures come later today. The warm pattern from december continued. This was part and partial because we had the Alaskan Vortex in place (same as last winter) . Again this is NOT something that was accounted on by the majority of your weather outlets. Many of them bought into the CFSv2 which was showing a colder then normal January across the east. Thru 14 days this has been wrong. 

Besides the reason mentioned above another reason is the Madden Julian Oscillation.

The MJO has traveled thru unfavorable phases for below normal temperatures and snowfall across the east because the MJO has been going thru the warmer phases. Current MJO is in phase 6 and has slowed down its progression some. Where does the MJO go from here? 

NCEP GFES shows going into phase 7 and then looping back into phase 6 before re emerging in phase 7..

NCEP GEFS_BC shows a loop in Phase 6 with a brief stint in phase 7..

NCEP GFSOP shows a brief stint in phase 7 back into phase 6 before reemerging back in phase 7

UKMET shows phase 6 into phase 7 

Canadian shows phase 6 

ECM shows phase 6 and then phase 7 and then heading back towards phase 6 but kind of ending around the border of 6 to 7

So as you can see there has not been much change in the MJO since the last update and it will either be phase 7 ,,phase 6 or into 7 before back to 6 before re emerging in 7..

A reminder of what the different phases look like for Phase 6 and 7 in January..

Phase 6

Phase 7 

One is warmer outlook and one is colder outlook and it helps to explain why the models are oscillating back and forth between warmer and colder because the MJO is quite uncertain as the different models above show the picture.

So we turn to the teleconnections and we look to the NAO and we look at tonights guidance for starters..

Well for those that may not know the red is positive and the blues is negative so the ECM is forecasting the NAO to go positive while the GFS also forecasts to go positive but at the end of the run takes it negative again. A positive NAO is NOT a cold signal so we need to look elsewhere for the cold. And these images from the GFS/ECM make sense considering we see this:

NAO is forecasted to go positive above as well. So we look to the EPO.

This is what is going to be responsible for delivering the colder weather into the lower 48 states and that is the EPO. We see the EPO negative but we also see that at the end of the runs the EPO is anticipated to go to positive. This could signal a return to what we been experiencing since Dec 1st ..this is something we have to watch.

From the PNA you can see that the models are showing and in agreement on a period of about 4 days where the PNA is going to go positive but then it spikes back to the negative. 

Now none of this information we have provided to this point has been made up. It is clearly shown by the graphics and charts. 

So what happens from here? With the MJO still being in phase 6 we are still going to continue with temperatures to be above normal but they are not going to be as above normal as what they been. Kind of like a step down process. First shot of colder air arrives in about 72 hrs ..However this will just be a transient shot of colder air as the guidance shows a moderation before the next shot comes south and east. 
This is something we have been discussing on our facebook page quite frequently. 

So the question becomes for going forwarded and getting a sustained locked in colder then normal weather pattern is does the teleconnections cooperate? If the NAO goes positive and the PNA goes negative then we will revert back into a warmer pattern and we may end up with a shorter time period of colder air. 

People want answers to these questions but these are questions that need to be watched to see what happens with the teleconnections.

Right now our best guess is that we will turn colder in about 72 hrs and we will moderate for a short time again before turning colder once again. The brunt of this cold air will probably be centered over the midwest and the Northern New England area while the rest of us do get colder but nothing historically cold. How long does it last? That all depends on those teleconnections. 

We are going to be keeping temperatures over 3 cities for the next two weeks to see whether or not we end up with a pattern change or not..  

Half of winter is gone and we have half to go and the question that remains to be seen and answered is if we can salvage it. Will it get colder ...yes...will it be historically cold in the east? Likely not... 
Stay tuned..