The first major snowstorm of the season is now presently taking shape across the southeast. There are actually two pieces of energy that will be responsible for creating this storm system that will be effecting the East Coast. One piece of energy (the primary) will be moving across the Ohio Valley while a coastal low will take shape over the Southeast and really start to rapidly intensify as it moves up along the east coast. The Northern stream system will then phase with the southern stream energy creating what looks to be Blizzard like conditions from NYC to the Boston and Cape Cod areas. There could be as much as 18-24 inches of snow with locations exceeding two feet.
A quick look at the guidance shows the following:
As you can see the ECM is showing a powerful Noreaster along the NE coast and the ensemble means are just as impressive..
Below is the GGEM at 48 hours and you can see this is in agreement with the 12 Z ECM and ECM ensemble means...
12 Z GFS is also in agreement with the Canadian and the ECM and the ensemble means..
And here is the 18 Z GFS
As you can see all guidance is in agreement on a strengthening Noreaster that will be effecting the northeast.
Starting time will be between 3 am and 6 am for the ABE region and last until 6 AM saturday morning. The ECM drops 1.03 QPF across this part of the region which would place us squarely in the 6-12 range.
In addition to the heavy snows will be the winds which will gust from 35-45 MPH. From NYC to Boston expect Blizzard conditions to occur with winds Gusting up to 60 MPH ...
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