Pattern Update -What is Ahead?

We been trying to put the pieces together on the weather pattern and where we are heading to over the next 10 days or so. We generally when doing this rely on two things:
1. The guidance that is available 
2. The teleconnections 

#2 being the greatest tool because it is what drives the weather patterns that we have. One of the main things we are seeing in the guidance appearing is the blocking showing up. You can see this really quite well in the below figure...

We have seen this signal come up other times this season but as we got within 84 hours ..the blocking would weaken and it more or less would become a "fake block" and not an actual true blocking pattern. So we will have to keep an eye on whether this blocking indeed happens as modeled.
Now when we turn to the teleconnections we get a muddled picture. The muddled picture comes in with the MJO. The current MJO is in phase 4..

Lets look at the what Phase 4 means in the month of Feb..

Now majority of your guidance takes the MJO into phase 5 ..from there it looks a little more uncertain but it looks like it could go into the COD which is commonly called the circle of death which is when it has less influence on the weather patterns. But this is what Phase 4 looks like in March...

The following will be Phase 5 for February and then March..

You can see what happens is the Southeast ridge is very much alive in Phases 4 thru 5. This would represent a warm up in temperatures across the region.. However..it is when the MJO reaches the COD that things become more interesting. This is when the MJO has the least influence and this is when the rest of the teleconnections will become important as to whether they actually happen as suggested.
Two different sources we can turn to for the teleconnections one being CPC and one being ESRL. So when we look at the NAO we see the following...

ESRL 

 ESRL NAO shows a very negative NAO and it stays this way thru the chart .

CPC shows a negative NAO as well and majority of the ensemble members keep the NAO negative though they try to raise it up towards neutral. 

The PNA (ESRL) 

 The PNA we diverge a little bit between the two sites with the top showing the PNA as negative to start but then going positive while the chart below shows more of a neutral but members taking it positive before going back towards neutral.

The AO 

The AO is negative and is generally expected to stay negative when looking at the above chart. So we are dealing with a negative NAO a negative AO, blocking (as being modeled) and a + PNA. 
All these teleconnections point towards a colder time period of weather upcoming if they indeed come to fruition. 
However, at the same time we are going to be having a MJO in phase 4 and 5 until it moves into the COD. So in the short term we will be moderating in temperature wise but the big ??? mark comes in when the MJO reaches the CDO. 

With those teleconnections shown to be in place this would put the mean trough into the east and this would end up putting ridging into the west coast. This in tandem with a active southern Jet Stream could lead to some interesting times along the east coast for those that are snow and cold lovers. 
Just to give you an idea and this at this point and time is just for entertainment purposes only to show you the potential that could lie on the table with the blocking, negative NAO, AO and + PNA in place. This was the 12 Z GGEM 10 day map:

It should be noted that the 00z GGEM has lost this feature however but still has the trough carved out over the region. The ECM was also close to showing something big on the 12 Z run but mainly New England ended up being the jackpot in that model run. 
The question or not to whether the upcoming pattern will deliver or not is highly dependent on where the trough axis sets up. If it sets up to far to the east anything trying to round the base of the trough would end up being to far east. If it ends up setting up further west then anything that rounds the base of the trough would move up the eastern seaboard...
So in summary we will be moderating and in that moderating time we will have two mainly rain storms to deal with (outside of Northern and Central New England) but there after is where the potential lies for things to get interesting based on what is being shown right now for about 7-10 days down the road. As always though the weather constantly changes and if that blocking fails to form and the MJO re emerges or stays in the warmer phases then winter would essentially be done for PA and points south and some parts in those areas are still waiting for winter to begin!