Taking a brief look at guidance ... We are going to look at the 00z NAM and 00z GFS along with the 00z GGEM all at 30 hours...
All guidance takes the primary low to the west of the area ..over the Ilinois, Indiana area. Meanwhile a secondary is going to develop but this is going to develop inland. This sends the 850 freezing line well to the north of the area. High pressure to the North will initially keep some lower level cold air in place ..but this high pressure will start to slide off to the east and will bring an easterly wind. So we are going to have a wide range of precipitation types from plain rain to Snow, Sleet. & Freezing rain. The areas that will be frozen will be to the north across the northern tier of PA and in the higher elevations in central PA..Its quite possible that these places could turn to rain as well ..but initially it will fall as snow and ice across those zones. Travel could become slippery. Even though we have warm air advection and winds switching to the east we still have some colder air trapped at the surface and hence despite 850s being mild the winter mix precipitation.
Current radar above shows the storm getting itself organized over the southeast part of the US . Those locations that receive all rainfall look to receive on the order of around an inch. However south of PA may see more then an inch of rain in Eastern Md.. NYC residents can expect to see all rain out of this system ..those in NW NJ can expect to see a winter mix which could leave between a T-3 inches of snow/sleet.
There after some colder air will come in behind the system and will shift the axis of the trough further to the east so the weather will quiet down some as any storms should stay out to sea.
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