We Now Have Invest 92 L -Will It Develop?

While we have Andrea ongoing across Florida and taking aim to move up the east coast with its heavy rains we look to the east of the Islands and we see that we have Invest 92 L. This is what the National Hurricane Center has to say about 92 L

1. A SMALL LOW PRESSURE AREA PRODUCING WINDS TO NEAR TROPICAL STORM
FORCE IS LOCATED ABOUT 775 MILES EAST OF THE LESSER ANTILLES.
ALTHOUGH THE THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM HAS
BECOME A LITTLE MORE ORGANIZED TODAY...STRONG UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE
EXPECTED TO LIMIT ANY ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT AS THIS DISTURBANCE
MOVES WESTWARD AROUND 15 MPH.  THIS SYSTEM HAS A LOW CHANCE...10
PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. 
ADDITIONAL INFORMATION ON THIS SYSTEM CAN BE FOUND IN HIGH SEAS
FORECASTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE.

While often times we disagree with the National Hurricane Center we are in complete and total agreement with them at the present time. The chances of this developing over the next 48 hrs are extremely low . Lets take a look at the reasons why...

While shear is needed and a necessity for severe thunderstorms it is detrimental to the development of tropical systems and you can see that there is at least 30 + knots of shear effecting this system. In addition to this is there is an abundance of dry air across and around the system..

Dry air is also detrimental to the development of tropical systems. So at the present time we have :

1. Too much shear in place

2. Too much dry air around the system..

The system is also very disorganized as you can tell looking at the visible image

And the convergence and divergence is to the east of the system..not presently over the system.

The one positive that the system has going for it is that the vorticity is not broad and elongated..

However at the present time there is to much going against this system to develop. Movement should be to the west over the next several days.. We will continue to keep an eye on this system to see whether or not it can develop if the environment would improve.

First Tropical Storm of the Season -Andrea

We mentioned in our Tropical Hurricane Outlook that we thought that the east coast would be in more play this season with the Tropical Storms and Hurricanes and the first one does not disappoint for being only the first week of June...

Current radar shows heavy rains, some tornado warned cells and this rain will be moving up along the eastern seaboard as Andrea moves off to the Northeast.

Rainfall expected by WPC over the next 72 hours...

Our track and impacts that Andrea should have on the east coast as it moves up and along the coast..

June 5th Severe Weather Potential

This will be the picture by 8 am in the morning. Low pressure over N TX with a dryline running south from there. A cold front that stretches east and then NNE to a low pressure over Minnesota . Then a warm front is positioned from west to east across the southeast part of the USA. The cold front will be sagging southeast as the day goes along and should cross NC TX by evening time. It will once again be this cold front responsible for severe weather across the highlighted zone. 
The greatest storm threats for Tornado potential looks to be in Ok once again and this time TX near the Panhandle..

You can see that this is where the greatest Energy Helicity is in place.

The greatest Helicity is also aligned over OK as well as the EHI..

The greatest wind shear also resides over that same region. All three sufficient for severe weather. 

Again when it comes to the Convective Available Potential energy the greatest CAPE also lighns up over the two areas mentioned above.

The above is the lift index which means there is enough lift in the atmosphere to produce severe weather and dewpoints will be in the 60s and 70s...indicating moisture in the atmosphere..

As you can tell the NAM keeps the greatest of the action to the north of the state of Tx ..

Until the evening when West TX gets into some of the action.. at which time is when the cold front would be moving across the region..

If you are not listed above then your severe modes would be winds and or hail along with heavy rains with any storms that do occur. North Central Tx according to the most recent run of the NAM could possible receive some shower activity but we are not expecting anything to be severe at this point and time..
So this is the outlook for tomorrow June 5th 2013

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June 4th Severe Weather Potential

Difference in guidance is going to make todays forecast a little more challenging. 

You can see this is the NAM at 18 hrs out or 18 Z in the afternoon or 2 PM Eastern time. You can see that it keeps TX dry. On the other hand the 12 Z ECM from yesterday afternoon between 2 PM and 8 PM Eastern Time develops moisture into TX... Both are high resolution models  and both have a different scenario. So we decided to take a blend of the two models when it came to the forecast.

To look at how conditions are expected to be by afternoon and evening ..

You see a low pressure over the Dakotas with a frontal system trailing south which turns into a cold front back to a low pressure over the border of Utah and Co..with the dry line in Southwest tx with another area of low pressure. It is this frontal feature that will bring the chance of severe weather to the region today.

So we look at the CAPE on the NAM and we see about 1000 to as high as 2750 

Lift Index is around negative 7 to negative 8 at its lowest which indicates that there is enough lift in the atmosphere to support severe weather...

Shear will be 30 knots + across the region but here again TX comes in with even lower shear which if the NAM is correct would not be very supportive of severe weather.

Dew points are in the 60s and 70s across the region...which this would be supportive of a moist atmosphere.

Now where the NAM does not create a pretty picture is in the Energy Helicity Index or the EHI

You can see that OK is really lit up again when it comes to the EHI and the SWEAT index is also at 500 across OK 

Those in TX looking at these last two images keep in mind that the ECM has no moisture for your region during this time frame.. However if the NAM is indeed correct then we could be looking at Tornado's once again into OK and also into Kansas...
Pretty much elsewhere we are expecting the severe threats to be winds and hail. 
Again ..the wildcard is TX which we can not give a clear picture on with the difference in guidance ...If the NAM is correct then they would remain dry ..despite the parameters..of the ECM is correct then they would be looking at severe weather with all modes possible. It is something we will have to keep an eye on thru out the day time and update if necessary!

June 3rd Storm Chances

We are going to use the term storm chances today because the set up for severe is not exactly the strongest. First of all we are dealing with a warm front , not a  cold front and generally warm fronts do not work out to well with severe weather. 

Second of all there is a question as to just how much moisture can develop...

Temperatures will be warm to hot in the area with temperatures in the 80s and 90s 

Dew Points are generally going to be in the 50s 

Convective available potential energy or CAPE will be in the 1000-3000 range depending on where you are located..

Lift Index will be supportive of severe chances with around negative 5 to negative 6 

The two more important parameters are the EHI and the shear both of which are rather strong but again there is a question of how much moisture can develop..

Shear is 40-70 knots which is more then sufficient to produce severe weather.

If we can get some moisture to develop we could see parts of western Kansas , Western Tx and into SW Nebraska have the potential for super cells which could also lead to the region seeing some tornadic activity. The same would also be said for the Ok panhandle region.

Again we will have to wait and see how much moisture can actually develop but we have put this outlook together as to where severe chances are possible..

June 1st the Severe Weather Continues

This is what the evening time is suppose to look like by later this evening with a low pressure over south central TX and a cold front stretching northwards to a low pressure over the Lakes region. It will be this cold front that will serve as the trigger once again for severe weather with all facets of severe weather expected to occur and we will break down where we think has the best chance for tornado's.
First off the weather will continue to be hot out ahead of the front with temperatures into the 90s and elsewhere in the 70s to 80 range..

Dew points will once again be in the 60s to around 70 degrees allowing the atmosphere to be quite muggy and moist.

Shear is the next factor in play and that will be between 40 and 60 knots...

Instability or Convective Available Potential Energy is sufficient for severe weather from 1000 to as much as 3500

Lift Index will be from about negative 2 to negative 8 depending on where you reside..

Now to get into the tornado parameters ...Which would be the EHI and Helicity and the SWEAT index..

EHI is at or above 1 over a large area of real estate . But as you can see the worst is in SE TX to Southern ARK .. This is where we think the greatest chance of tornados will be . However anywhere with an 1 or above has the chance to see an isolated tornado from any supercells that do form.

You can see that the SWEAT index is also showing the same favored locations but would add Louisiana to the list where tornados are possible. 

Helicity is more of a non factor today compared to other days with the highest over western OH and west.

So with all the parameters in place we have put together this outlook for June 1st..

Once again if you are in the path of a storm that contains a tornado seek shelter immediately. Listen to your NWS for any latest watches warnings or special weather statements...