June 4th Severe Weather Potential

Difference in guidance is going to make todays forecast a little more challenging. 

You can see this is the NAM at 18 hrs out or 18 Z in the afternoon or 2 PM Eastern time. You can see that it keeps TX dry. On the other hand the 12 Z ECM from yesterday afternoon between 2 PM and 8 PM Eastern Time develops moisture into TX... Both are high resolution models  and both have a different scenario. So we decided to take a blend of the two models when it came to the forecast.

To look at how conditions are expected to be by afternoon and evening ..

You see a low pressure over the Dakotas with a frontal system trailing south which turns into a cold front back to a low pressure over the border of Utah and Co..with the dry line in Southwest tx with another area of low pressure. It is this frontal feature that will bring the chance of severe weather to the region today.

So we look at the CAPE on the NAM and we see about 1000 to as high as 2750 

Lift Index is around negative 7 to negative 8 at its lowest which indicates that there is enough lift in the atmosphere to support severe weather...

Shear will be 30 knots + across the region but here again TX comes in with even lower shear which if the NAM is correct would not be very supportive of severe weather.

Dew points are in the 60s and 70s across the region...which this would be supportive of a moist atmosphere.

Now where the NAM does not create a pretty picture is in the Energy Helicity Index or the EHI

You can see that OK is really lit up again when it comes to the EHI and the SWEAT index is also at 500 across OK 

Those in TX looking at these last two images keep in mind that the ECM has no moisture for your region during this time frame.. However if the NAM is indeed correct then we could be looking at Tornado's once again into OK and also into Kansas...
Pretty much elsewhere we are expecting the severe threats to be winds and hail. 
Again ..the wildcard is TX which we can not give a clear picture on with the difference in guidance ...If the NAM is correct then they would remain dry ..despite the parameters..of the ECM is correct then they would be looking at severe weather with all modes possible. It is something we will have to keep an eye on thru out the day time and update if necessary!