June 16 Severe Weather Potential

The area we have circled in red is where we anticipate the greatest of the severe weather to be based on the parameters that are presently in place. This is  a day 2 outlook so this could change between now and later on tonight.
The area in red has the chance to have the potential for tornadoes based on the EHI for that particular region at being at least one and above..

It is also in the northern part of that circle in red that the shear is greatest with 40 + knots..

Cape or convective potential energy is also sufficient enough to produce severe weather ..

With amounts of CAPE as high as 4000. 
There is also plenty of Lift in the atmosphere..

And the greatest Helicity also lines up with the greatest EHI which is what you want to look for when there is the potential for tornadoes.

As for temperatures and dew points it will be quite warm ahead of the cold front with temperatures in the 80s and 90s and dewpoints in the 60s and 70s..

As we mentioned the trigger will be a cold front that will be dropping down to the south east and a secondary cold front will also be following this one for areas further north in the outlook zone. 

If you are in the red circle we emphasize that all modes of severe are possible and if you are outside that area the severe chances are lower with winds and perhaps some hail being the main threats. 

We will update this later tonight if necessary once the new data for today comes in ..