June 17th Severe Weather & Garden Variety Storms

You look at the map above and its a complex series of fronts . A cold front across the lakes region will serve as a focus for thunderstorms. A secondary cold front south of there will serve as a purpose for thunderstorms and then a stationary front along the central part of the USA will also serve as a focus for thunderstorms.
A low pressure will be located across west Tx with a trough associated with it ..all these features will serve as triggers to bring about severe weather. 

Lets look at the temperatures first ..

Temperatures are going to be in the 80s and 90s for the most part so a really warm day is on tap across much of the region ..On top of this the Dew Points are going to be "sticky" as well in the 60s to 70s..

Now lets look at instability or CAPE  or Convective Available Potential Energy that will be available..

CAPE will be 1000 to as much as 3500 depending on where you are located ..

There is plenty of lift across the whole area so the Lift Index will not be a problem when it comes to severe or garden variety storms.
We think the EHI will serve to show where the worst of the severe weather will be with all modes possible including a tornado or two possible..

Super cells will be possible from Central and Western Nebraska to Eastern Colorado and then almost in a straight line down into TX. This is the region we think will have the greatest chance of severe weather.

This is also the region where shear will be the greatest with at least 40 knots...

So with all the above parameters we have highlighted a pretty large zone but keep in mind we pointed out where we think the worst will be. If you are outside those areas then your threats with any storms would be winds and hail along with heavy rain..