Monday, June 24, 2013

June 24th Severe Weather Potential

Today is going to be complicated cause we are actually dealing with two different frontal systems and two different systems. System #1 which will effect the areas further east is a cold front which also turns into a warm front which is attached to a low pressure up in Canada.
System #2 is low pressure that will be coming out of montana with its associated trough and also a warm front that moves west to east. These frontal systems will be the cause for severe weather potential today ..
One thing is certain its going to be a hot day across most of the country ..
Temperatures are going to be from the 80s to as high as 100 degrees depending where you are located..
In addition to the warm temperatures it will be humid with dew points in the 60s and 70s...

Now lets look at the severe weather parameters that will be in place...
CAPE is going to range from anywhere from 1000 to as much as 4000 depending on where you are located..
Plenty of lift across the central part of the country with as low as negative 10-12.

This next image is a little concerning in all reality ..
This shows a large area of EHI at or above 2 from the Dakotas down into Kansas . This would indicate the potential for some tornadic activity across this region..
The helicity also lines up with this same area fairly well..

The last parameter to look at is the shear which will be above 30 knots across the area which is sufficient for severe weather..
So with that all said and done this is the outlook . We think further east in areas like KY and TN you are only going to be dealing with pop up storms that could bring a chance of hail and or wind...
If you are in the areas that we mentioned for Tornado potential keep your eye to the sky and stay tuned in to your local weather or the National Weather Service for updates..

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