We Now Have Invest 92 L -Will It Develop?

While we have Andrea ongoing across Florida and taking aim to move up the east coast with its heavy rains we look to the east of the Islands and we see that we have Invest 92 L. This is what the National Hurricane Center has to say about 92 L

1. A SMALL LOW PRESSURE AREA PRODUCING WINDS TO NEAR TROPICAL STORM
FORCE IS LOCATED ABOUT 775 MILES EAST OF THE LESSER ANTILLES.
ALTHOUGH THE THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM HAS
BECOME A LITTLE MORE ORGANIZED TODAY...STRONG UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE
EXPECTED TO LIMIT ANY ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT AS THIS DISTURBANCE
MOVES WESTWARD AROUND 15 MPH.  THIS SYSTEM HAS A LOW CHANCE...10
PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. 
ADDITIONAL INFORMATION ON THIS SYSTEM CAN BE FOUND IN HIGH SEAS
FORECASTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE.

While often times we disagree with the National Hurricane Center we are in complete and total agreement with them at the present time. The chances of this developing over the next 48 hrs are extremely low . Lets take a look at the reasons why...

While shear is needed and a necessity for severe thunderstorms it is detrimental to the development of tropical systems and you can see that there is at least 30 + knots of shear effecting this system. In addition to this is there is an abundance of dry air across and around the system..

Dry air is also detrimental to the development of tropical systems. So at the present time we have :

1. Too much shear in place

2. Too much dry air around the system..

The system is also very disorganized as you can tell looking at the visible image

And the convergence and divergence is to the east of the system..not presently over the system.

The one positive that the system has going for it is that the vorticity is not broad and elongated..

However at the present time there is to much going against this system to develop. Movement should be to the west over the next several days.. We will continue to keep an eye on this system to see whether or not it can develop if the environment would improve.