Tropical Storm Chantal Thoughts...

The above two images are images of Chantal. Sometime while we were away from the PC this evening Invest 95 L became Tropical Storm Chantal. This makes this the third storm of the Atlantic Season. 
As you can see by the bottom image which is a water vapor image there is some dry air off to the west of the center of circulation. As long as this dry air does not get  sucked into the C.O.C. we think that conditions are there for Chantal to intensify some. We will take a look at those conditions in just a minute or two but first the latest TRMM pass shows that we have what looks to be a partial eyewall trying to develop.

This next image is the NCEP ensemble forecasts from 18 Z model runs and yes some of these models bring this as a threat to the east coast..Right now we think the most likely target zone would be for this to effect southern Florida...and it will depend on the strength of the Western Atlantic Ridge as to whether or not this can go up the Eastern Seaboard.

The center of circulation currently is under the greatest area of vorticity and the vorticity is not elongated or broad like majority of your systems are when they are developing. 

Wind shear, while important for the development of thunderstorms actually inhibits development of tropical systems and wind shear at this present time is about 10-20 knots .. this does not seem to be having to much of an impact on this system at the present time..

You can see by the shear tendency map which shows where shear is increasing and where it is decreasing that the greatest shear is north of the system and this should work out fine for the time being because the system is generally going to stay on a westward track for the next few days due to the ridging over top of the system as shown on the steering currents map below:

The above image is the convergence map which shows that the greatest convergence lies just south west of Chantal and the greatest divergence also lies just south of Chantal...

As far as the modeling is concerned tonight the GFS takes the system directly over Hispanola as shown here at 69 hrs out...and really keeps the system moving on the fast side. Faster speed of a system can also impede development ...If the GFS is correct with Chantal going over Hispanola then there is a very good chance that the system could be torn apart..

The GGEM tonight brings the system into around the Florida coast line as we mentioned earlier as to where we think the most likely target zone is with this system..

At the time of this writing the ECM is not yet out ...however this was the 12 Z ECM ensemble means ..

So in summary we expect Chantal to continue to slowly organize and intensify with conditions being ideal for intensification and we expect a general west movement the next couple days before a West Northwest track would take place...

At the present time we think Florida has to keep an eye on this system but we also feel that if you are along the east coast you should also be keeping an eye on this system...

We will have another update later on this evening likely in the overnight hours and will include storm track that we think Chantal should take...