A cold front is going to be making its way to the south and east and moving thru and into a very warm and humid air mass. It will be this front that will be the focal point for severe weather potential and in the Southwest a trough will be moving towards the east and this will serve as a potential for severe weather in that region as well.
Dew points are going to be in the 60s and 70s making it feel very warm and humid across the region highlighted for severe weather..
Air temperatures are going to be in the 80s and 90s and so when you factor in the high dew points you can pretty much bank on it being very warm , hot and humid.
Convective Available Potential energy is going to be running anywhere between 1000 and about 4000. So we do have some fuel in place ...
There will be plenty of lift in the atmosphere from 0 which is very meager to about negative 9 which is ample enough for severe weather ..
Shear is going to be highest across the northern most extent of the severe zone where it will be 30 knots plus...elsewhere the shear will be very marginal.
EHI will be at 1 or above across a large area which means there will be a potential for supercells to take place and there are some isolated pockets where the EHI is higher and it is these locations where we think the possibility of a tornado could exist. If you are not in those locations then we are talking about winds and hail and heavy rain with any storms being the main threats. The outlook is below..
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