Friday, July 12, 2013

Invest 96 L ..The Remnants of Chantal

There is some confusion out in the world of weather on the internet with Invest 96 L. Invest 96 L is simply the remnants of Chantal ..so if it were to regenerate into a tropical storm it would acquire the name of Chantel.
National Hurricane Center has this at a 30% chance of re developing..
Some graphical images of the remnants of Chantal ..
Right now we do not view conditions as all that favorable for redevelopment...

Wind shear which is a deterrent to tropical cyclones strengthening is at about 20 knots..
You can also see this looking at the wind shear tendency image and see that there is shear all around this system..
Some things are in favor however of possible development and that would be the convergence and divergence that is presently over the system..
And another factor in favor is that the vorticity is not elongated ..
However you can see that the vorticities are not vertically aligned or stacked at the 850 level ,700 level or 500 level..

These centers would have to become vertically aligned or stacked if we want to see redevelopment out of this system. We think with the shear being at about 20 knots that any development of this system will be slow to occur...

The tracks as of 00z for this system become kind of interesting:
They take the system up along the east coast of Florida (majority) and then inland and this would be because of interaction with the upper level low in the southeast.
Intensity forecasts , all but one model take this back to tropical storm strength...
This would be between 24 and 48 hours out in time. However...like we mentioned above we would like to see the wind shear ease up some in order for redevelopment to take place. 

The steering currents that are in place indeed would support a movement almost due NNW as it moves around the Western Atlantic Ridge.

So we do not think that Chantal is a factor that we should just ignore as we do think that she could regenerate back into a Tropical Depression or a Tropical storm but we just think that it may take a little longer until the wind shear lets up a  little bit. Those in Florida should be keeping an eye on this system. Irregardless of development or not she should provide some heavy rain across Florida...

We will continue to monitor the situation and see where we are with this by this time later tonight. 

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