Tropical Storm Dorian - The Storm That Was Said It Couldn't

Tropical Storm Dorian the storm that was said it could not or would not develop if you read around the internet the past few days. Of course we had said on our Facebook page that this would be the next Tropical Depression which it became and then upgraded to a tropical storm.

As you can see tropical storm Dorian looks pretty good in this early part of the overnight... Considering that Dorian is not really over any TCHP and also cooler waters are being straddled.. we think she looks fairly good and should more then likely be increased in intensity with the next update...

TCHP

TCHP increases as it would head towards the Lesser Antilles ...and the sea surface temps...

Again it is straddling the cooler waters but then there is warmer waters ahead of it .. we think that the speed that the system is traveling at the present time will be fast enough that it will have little effect on Dorian. Dorian as of 11 PM was moving 20 MPH to the WNW and this is to the south of a mid level ridge.. And the steering currents would keep this west to northwest to west track in place..

You can also see looking at the vorticities in the 850 mb level, 700 mb level and 500 mb level that they are stacked and vertically aligned...

A little stretched out to the southwest at 850 mbs ..

So this is just another reason why Dorian is looking pretty good tonight. The question really becomes what is ahead.. Well lets take a look at some more images before we get to the guidance...

While Dorian is just out of the picture here you can see that the wind shear presently is light at about 5-10 mph. This is conducive for further strengthening.. You can see that the shear has been dropping around the system by looking at the shear tendency map which tells you whether shear is increasing or decreasing..

So wind shear right now is favorable.

You can also see that the system is moving into decent convergence and the same can be said about divergence as well..

So this is just another factor that would favor some intensification of the system.

Track wise ... fairly well clustered at the 00z time frame..

Majority of the guidance has this moving west northwest to west and missing the shredder islands.. this is a good thing for those who would like to see if Dorian can make it to the East Coast...

Intensity however is divided as some weaken the system and some strengthen the system..

The GFS says that the Southeast should keep an eye out on this system...

The above is 192 hours and its interesting to note that the GFS must have really weak steering currents because the run just meanders Dorian towards the Southeast coast because this is 240 hours out below..

We think right now its not really all that important as to "where this may end up" because the question is whether or not the intensity of the system holds in check with the questionable TCHP and the cooler waters. 
We think for the near term and time being that conditions are pretty much ideal otherwise for this system to at least maintain if not gain some in intensity and if the guidance continues to suggest the Bahamas and then the Southeast region and the system continues to maintain or increase ...at that time we would suggest that we would have to keep an eye out for the Southeast coast or somewhere on the east coast. 

We would like to see some other of the global guidance come around to what the GFS is showing. Though we are not sure we buy the meandering of the system beyond 192 hours but remember this is where the GFS loses resolution even further.