The much anticipated weakening of ERIKA has occurred. For the past 48 hours been referencing that ERIKA would weaken to a Tropical Depression and that had occurred. While I was not anticipating weakening to a remnant low...I have also been emphatic on ERIKA not dissipating. Now to clarify, what I mean by dissipating, is losing complete structure that she no longer becomes trackable. In other words I never felt that ERIKA would just vanish! Perhaps that is a better word then dissipate. As you can see from the above image..this is the first image of ERIKA after the satellite eclipse. Once again..ERIKA with the overnight period has pulsated back into a better condition then previous satellite images before the eclipse. This is a cycle with pulsating type storms. We have seen this repeated day in and day out and everytime she has done this she has relocated her center.
I have been referencing in all my discussions where the best convergence is located and how I been thinking that this is where the center is going to either relocate or move towards. And when you look at the best convergence you can see once again that the area where the blowup is occurring is exactly where that best convergence is located.
So, the convection is occurring in the best potential area and is causing ERIKA to actually reorganize. This area is also only in 5-10 knots of shear in the mid level which also aids in reorganizing.
The only problem that ERIKA is facing right now is the shear in the upper levels. The shear in the upper levels is 20-30 knots around where she is trying to reorganize and relocate.
So, essentially, the sooner that ERIKA gets out of the CARRIBEAN, the sooner she will start to head towards a better surrounding conducive to potentially regain Tropical Depression status. As you can see off to her NW the shear is much lighter once N of Hispanola.
What about the guidance? Well, previously the GGEM all but essentially caused ERIKA to vanish. The ECM..essentially does not really develop ERIKA any further and keeps her more or less as an open wave. The GFS redevelops ERIKA by pulling the old LLC back to the MLC that was off to the NE of the old LLC and then moves that on a WNW basis to the north of the islands. The NOGAPS..also focuses on a the same type of development method as the GFS. While the GFS redevelops ERIKA and moves her WNW to north of the BAHAMAS and then NW to N out into the central atlantic to get stalled for quite some time before moving NE out to sea completely. The NOGAPS which uses the same developmental idea as the GFS..brings ERIKA closer to the east coast and actually brings a landfall of a pretty potent system into the SNE area. In particular around Long Island. The GFDL & HWRF also ramp this system up and take it on a track similar to the Navy Nogaps.
At this point and time..intensity level is not really a concern considering that we are out in the future between 100-200 hours. The track is also going to be shifting around on guidance.
The question becomes can Erika actually redevelop? The answer in my opinion is yes! Heres why! ERIKA at this point is a remnant low. Even if ERIKA were to go across Hispanola..she would be going across as a REMNANT LOW. A remnant low going across the island would not be the same as a CAT 2/3 going across the island and having its core ripped out. As a remnant low you are already without your core. However, the remnant low potentially will skirt either across PR or in between PR and Hispanola and then move WNW to the north of Hispanola. If that track of the remnant low of ERIKA prevails...then ERIKA will be heading into a better environment for redeveloping. If ERIKA stays in the CARRIBEAN sea..under hostile conditions it will mean vanishing. Until ERIKA gets out of the CARRIBEAN sea she will continue to go thru the pulsation cycles that have become quite familiar.
Now what happens once she is out of the CARRIBEAN sea, assuming she survives the shear and dry air that she is battling? What type of synoptic setting are we looking at? Lets look at the GFS above.
I have labeled certain things here at 78 hours out. I have pointed out where the ridging is, high pressures making that ridging and also where the troughs are as well as where the remnants of ERIKA are. Remember this is at 78 hrs and ERIKA is weak. And the ridging only gets stronger from this point on. While I think the GFS is correct in its redevelopment of ERIKA.. I have some major issues with what the GFS is showing here in regards to the synoptics and ERIKA. ERIKA on the GFS is a weak storm. With ridging that strong in place...ERIKA IMO would not be able to even move to the North and if she were able to due to a weakness in that ridge..the GFS is forecasting that ridge to close that weakness with ERIKA already in the atlantic. This would mean the ridge would be pressing to the east and ERIKA is strong enough to resist that pressing and just stall in the atlantic? I do not think that is a likely scenario. However, the most important thing about the GFS run and essentially all guidance agrees on this is that there is going to be strong ridging from the CAR into the NE. If this synoptic set up is correct and ERIKA does redevelop..she is not going to penetrate that ridge unless she was a stronger system like CAT 1 or above. A thought to keep in the back of your mind.
So the more likely scenario with that type of ridging in place would be for ERIKA to move WNW out of the CARRIBEAN sea ...pass to the north of the island of Hispanola..and then to continue WNW till she is north of the BAHAMAS. It is at this time that potential intensification can happen. Then from there i think ERIKA would continue WNW to NW and potentially impact the SE coast.
The other scenario is that ERIKA completely vanishes and dissipates that she is no longer trackable due to never getting out of the CARRIBEAN sea.
And the final scenario is that ERIKAs remnants just remain a remnant low and never redeveop into anything greater and become nothing but a big rain maker across the Southeast.
All three of these options are viable. All three of these options have potential to happen!
However...until ERIKA completely vanishes...any one of these scenarios can occur. At this point and time, I am thinking that ERIKA will redevelop once north of the islands and in the better atmosphere. Shes a pulsater!
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