September 1st Early Morning Thoughts on Invest 94 L

An absolutely beautiful image at 7:15 UTC. Latest early morning thoughts on Invest 94 L as of 3:33 AM EST, tuesday september 1st.

First let me start off by saying that i disagree with NHC up to this point and time for not classifying this as at least a tropical depression. According to two sources wunderground being one,and the recon tropical atlantic site being the other...both have wind speeds that would make this a depression. Wunderground shows 35 MPH and so does the recon center. Now i know that people may disagree with me on this issue and that is fine but the people that are in the Leeward Islands, Antilles and Pr at this point and time are probably under the impression that this is just a Tropical wave because it has yet to be classified. Those winds support a Tropical Depression and 4 miles away from a minimal Tropical Storm. It really does not matter how the winds are derived..the fact of the matter is that they are there and they are observed. I would be very surprised if this does not get classified in about an hour from now...
Looking at the latest guidance...00z GFDL has woken up out of its slumber and is now finally starting to develop ERIKA 2 be. This is probably because the GFS is also starting to come around,but IMO still not there. Dynamical models are all pretty much taking the southern route. 00z NAM has also come in further to the south of its 12 Z run. 00z NOGAPS is probably the model that takes ERIKA the furthest south at this point and time. The 00z GGEM which was showing a recurve on its two prior runs is now no longer showing this recurve but a storm riding up the east coast and impacting the SE. The ECM 00z has actually moved this more to the NW then its prior 12 Z run. I believe that this is highly attributed to it opening the wave up at hrs 192 and amplifying the trough across SE Canada that then picks up invest 94 L and keeps her out to sea. I highly believe that the ECM is the outlier at this point and time for three reasons.
#1. The 00z ECM keeps the wave weak. This is important because if the wave is actually weaker then its going to be subjected to the lower level steering currents and with its more southern latitude...it would keep to a further south track then what the 00z ECM is applying.
#2. The teleconnections do not support a amplifying trough. At this point and time the NAO is positive and then trends to neutral..PNA is positive and trends to neutral while the EPO remains neutral. This does not spell an amplifying trough across SE Canada into the Northeast as it is implying on tonights run.
#3. Though I have not seen the ECM ensemble means for tonights 00z ECM run..it would be completely out of sync with its ensemble means for the past 6 days. I think the ECM is also having trouble with this because it is a weaker invest at this point and time (though slowly developing)
Lets move on to shear. At this present time there is about 5-10 knots around the center of the storm with shear increasing somewhat to its North. As has been the case thru out most the day..the ULL that has been positioned to the North of invest 94. While this has slowed development..it has not weakened the system as evident by winds increasing and pressure dropping. Instead its been acting as a ventilator for invest 94 L and has been allowing it to "breathe"

Steering currents. As you can see the steering currents continue on a track to take invest 94 L off to the wnw. From 11 PM to 2 AM ..the gain has been .6 N and 1.6 West. Again this shows that a weaker system will be subject to those steering currents and we are gaining more westward progression then we are northwards with the system current as of 2 AM at 16 N and 55.9 west. So its just about at 56 W currently and is still 4 degrees south of 20 N.
So what should happen with Invest 94 L? The first thing that should happen is 94 L should be classified and I think there is a high chance that it might just jump to a Tropical Storm. I have no doubt that invest 94 L is going to become a named storm. I also think due to the steering currents that Invest 94 L will continue to move off to the WNW. 
I think that ERIKA has the potential to become an east coast threat. I think that a track closer to the east coast is more of a likely scenario then a track out to sea. Why? Most models indicate a strong ridge extending onto the east coast. Perhaps the only model that does not is the 00z ECM, but like i said, its ensembles (12 Z) tell a different story and I also provided reasons why i think its an outlier. Due to its southern extent of origin and history, being more south then Danny was, weaker then Bill was...and the former making landfall at Marthas Vineyard while the latter passes 150 miles SE of CC..this factor puts it at a greater chance to avoid the weakness in the ridge and then allow the ridge to build in back over top as majority of the guidance shows. With all the above in mind ...Here is latest track expected.. above...

Stay tuned for further updates...