Some tidbits of thought that I have been pondering....
1. Been pretty much expecting a weak el nino to ride us thru the winter time...
A. This El Nino is actually a very unusual El Nino as it has no clear El nino trends.
This brings me to point #2..
2. El Nino years generally like negative SOI....
A. SOI while was negative is clearly on the rise and is now into positive territory...
14-Sep-2009 1015.35 1013.80 -4.57 0.03 1.04
15-Sep-2009 1014.96 1011.95 4.10 0.00 1.19
16-Sep-2009 1016.48 1011.25 17.29 0.37 1.61
17-Sep-2009 1017.39 1011.95 18.54 0.94 2.08
18-Sep-2009 1017.20 1012.60 13.55 1.71 2.45
As is shown in the figures above we are now in positive figures...
3. Is this the start of a trend?
A. What happens if the SOI continues to rise and gain in the positive category?
B. What would this mean as far as El Nino is concerned?
4. If this is a trend and the positive rise in SOI continues then could we be headed instead for a La Nina?
A. Could this be the reason why this el nino has been showing both characteristics of an el nino and a la nina?
Perhaps the most important thing at this point and time is to monitor the SOI ..as this winters puzzle might not be completely solved yet...
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