Southeast Pattern Update for the week of September 20-27,2009

The persistent low that has been responsible for the excessive rainfall in the Southeast is beginning to weaken and move off to the north. Unfortunately, however, there is more rainfall to contend with with the approaching of cold fronts to the region. These cold fronts are still enhancing rainfall across the region where they have already recieved on the order of 20 inches in some locales. 

A upper level ridge will move into the region for tuesday into wednesday. As an ULL retrogrades to the Rocky Mountains. By mid-late week the upper level ridge will then retrograde to the MS valley as a trough amplifies over the northeast.  From there we pretty much will be into a more progressive type flow with the ridge axis reaching the appalachians. 

One cold front will reach the region on thursday..There is a question as to how far south this particular cold front will reach. If it reaches far enough south it could cause an area of enhanced precipitation once again across portions of the southeast. Another cold front reaches the area on Friday late. This cold front also has the potential to enhance rainfall over the southeast. 

So the question becomes does the southeast even get a break from the rainfall in between the persistent low moving out and the approaching cold fronts? I think its possible that wednesday would be the day where things tend to dry out but that drying out process will not be long...

The upper level low that has been responsible for all the rainfall in the southeast will still be over the MS valley next Sunday. So the forecast over the next week generally looks to be quite wet with only a brief break in between weather systems. 

I believe the region will overall have to wait until the 28th before we can actually get some real drying to occur...That is also the time period that I expect cooler temperatures to move into the region. In the sunday to monday time frame. Until then temperatures will be seasonal to above seasonal across majority of the southeast. 

Its really impossible to pinpoint rainfall totals that could occur within this time frame due to the uncertainty of the extent of the first cold front on thursday and the moist atmosphere currently in place due to the ULL that has been producing the rain. Its possible that over parts of the SE an additional 1-5 inches of rainfall could occur over the next week. 

Also watching the remains of what use to be hurricane fred moving off to the west towards the southeast coast and what type of effect he will have across the southeast and in what shape and form. At this time i feel that anything from Fred should mainly impact right along the coast of the southeast but never the less will keep an eye on that as well...