Severe Outlook for 3/28/12

Alright for starters we have placed above the outlook for tomorrow. The current radar and the current surface map…

Re: Current radar you can see that there is little to no moisture return over the northern areas where SPC had issued the slight risk for today.  As of 7:25 PM not one storm report has come out via SPC..

Re: Current surface map shows a low pressure system across N Wisconsin. From there a warm front extends to the South South east and a cold front trails behind that..

Out ahead of this warm front is a cooler air mass but you can see the warm air that is surging NE with the warm front. We never like to depend on a warm front to bring us severe weather chances so it is no surprise that presently we are not seeing all that much happening.

If you look at the current radar again you will see that there is moisture return over the SW part of TX. This should continue to increase in this region.

The low over N Wisconsin should continue to evolve towards the east and then be in a location over Northern NY /Canadian border by Wednesday evening 8 PM.

What this will do is two fold:

1. It will allow warmer temperatures to make there way into the PA region with the advancing east of the warm front.

2. It will drag a cold front across the region. This cold front should spark off some showers and possibly some general thunderstorms across the PA region but over all the front is pretty much a dry front.. In other words not much moisture to work with. So that is the reason why Western PA and E PA into NJ is in just a low risk of thunderstorms. There will be a warm up which will be followed by a cool down and in this region that will continue to be the main weather story..

Now..the rest of the area will have a greater chance of severe weather with CAPE ranging from 500 to 3000. Lift Index of 0 to – 8.. Lapse rates are 6.5 + ..and shear 30-40 knots..

The greatest of the severe threat looks to reside around OK and KS region.

At this time we think the main threats will be gusty winds and hail but if there were to be any isolated tornados it would be across OK where EHI is greatest and would be in the evening as the southerly jet stream increases!