March 2nd Severe Weather Outlook

The forecast above is based off the latest SREF/NAM/GFS.

CAPE across the slight risk area goes anywhere from 500-3000 depending where you are located. The highest CAPE is actually over central TN.

Lift index is anywhere from 0 to – 8..again with the best lift over the TN area.

We can certainly say we agree with where SPC has the moderate risk area though it should spread a little more west into Indiana..

Energy Helicity in this area is 1.00-3.00 ..this is quite high and would indicate tornado potential.

Bulk shear is certainly supportable with 50 knots +

At the surface we have a low pressure that is going to be deepening as it heads towards the Great Lakes..If this sounds familiar it is because it is pretty much a replay of what happened with this last system that gave the region rain and further north snow…

A warm front will be lifting towards the Mid Atlantic and areas like SW PA should be on the warm sector side by the evening time..

A cold front drapes SW from this low pressure area and this is going to serve as the trigger for severe weather once again.

This is a very spring like pattern in place with southerly flow and ridges out ahead of a fast paced flow of low pressure areas with there associated cold fronts..

In this case we are talking about temperatures from SW PA (60s) to 70-80 over the slight risk area to temperatures only in the 40s and 50s just 24 hrs. later.

So whenever you have this type of parameters in place and this type of temperature contrast to occur you end up with what can be explosive development for severe weather.

We do not have the 5% into eastern PA because that part of the area is still under enough confluence (cooler air & wrong side of the warm front ) so that any storms as they hit the mountains would fall apart. Similar to weak clipper system moisture never making it across the mountains.

A squall line will develop along this cold front as it advances towards the east. At this time also a trough is associated with this frontal system and that will be advancing eastwards as well.

It will be the afternoon into early evening (or late afternoon) that would be the best potential for tornados. Again with the parameters in place and the temperature difference before and after the front we could be looking at strong tornado’s and long tracking tornado’s as well.

Please if you are in the slight risk and moderate risk area pay attention to your local NWS radio and heed any warnings and take proper coverage.

Now ..the area where we differ with SPC is the northern extent. This is simply because the greatest parameters from CAPE to LI to EHI etc. are in the southern areas..

These areas in the gray shading do have potential for severe but at the present time the thinking would be just strong gusty winds and hail as the primary threats!

Please stay tuned to my co partner David Saurer and Innovation Weather for all the latest watches and warnings as this potentially dangerous event unfolds!