That is correct you are reading the title correctly. The biggest area of concern is going to be from Ohio into the SE with another smaller area shaded in gray equivalent to a 5% risk. This is based on the most recent run of the SREF and short range guidance.
An occluded area of low pressure will be heading across the great lakes and this will be lifting a warm front towards the region sending warm southerly flow ahead in the mid levels and also at the surface across areas like Western PA . In SW PA for example temperatures will be between 50 –60 but then you head east and you are in the 30s..
It will be this cold front that will be heading towards the region that will be responsible for the severe weather. The trigger so to speak..
Because of cloud cover and ongoing precipitation ..this will likely hinder the severe weather to some extent. With limited CAPE ..the greatest severe threat appears to be Strong Winds….
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