This is the final map before the system arrives other then the Severe Weather Potential map that will be issued this evening.
The models at 12 Z today came in warmer ..The ECM also has a toasty BL. To toasty for the big cities such as NYC and KPHL.
Essentially what we are dealing with is a teleconnection driven event where there is a vertically stacked low moving to the Great Lakes with a warm front lifting N and a cold front moving to the east.
A secondary low develops along the frontal system.
Strong WAA and southerly flow out in advance of this frontal system..
Strong temperature gradient as parts of SW PA will be 50-60 while further east temperatures will be 30-40 range...
This temperature gradient could cause severe weather across western Pa with the advancing cold front..
Big cities such as KPHL and KNYC are looking at a mainly rain event
NW NJ would be in the 1-3 zone along with ice..
Greatest Snow accumulations will be North of PA in Central NY and into Northern New England..
The snow and ice accumulations in PA will be mainly the highest elevations..
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