The above is the updated scenario map.
Low pressure is going to be moving out of the Rockies region and move ENE towards the Great lakes region.
This is going to allow warm air advection to spread across the area. A warm front will be lifting towards the area and from the low pressure area a cold front will then also be crossing the region.
It’s the warm southerly flow at the mid levels and the surface in the SW part of PA with the advancing cold front that will bring the the chance of some thunderstorms into the region ..some of which could be severe.
There will be a cold sector to this storm in the beginning as the warm air advection moves into the region. This is thanks to a high pressure in SE Canada providing an area of confluence. However..the warm air advection will end up winning out and the greatest snow accumulations will be NY state and North and east and even some of that region will also be seeing potential for ICE.
For the ABE region we are expecting precipitation to begin as snow and sleet but will transition over to rain relatively quickly. Further to the north the WAA will have a slower time transitioning the moisture to rain so we can see 2-4 inches into NE PA along with some ICE in the range of .10 with some isolated amounts that could reach .25
The big cities such as NYC and KPHL we are anticipating a mainly rain scenario for this system.
The teleconnections never supported a further south and east solution and this is something that we never bought into despite the better model guidance of the ECM suggesting so.
One thing we have learned is that teleconnections drive the weather pattern & determine ending results.
Stay tuned for further updates.
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