First of all there is a new look to the severe weather map that we are using. Hope you like the look. Now ..this forecast is based on the NAM/SREF a blend of the two models.
Severe Weather Parameters
The NAM is showing as much as 500-2000 CAPE across the area..
Lift index any where from 0 to -6 across the region
SWEAT Index is between 400-500 across western TX and Western OK
These regions also have EHI up to 1.00 or lower..
Shear is 35 knots to as much as 55 knots..
Mid Level Lapse Rates are 6.0-6.5
More then likely this severe threat will not occur until the late evening hours across the region.. as it is really not until after 11 PM where moisture flow from the GOM becomes involved and this is when the greatest warm air advection will also begin to filter into the region.
While the SPC does not see much of a tornado potential with their outlook if the NAM SWEAT index is any indication there could indeed be some isolated tornados across Western TX into Western Ok.. We do not agree with stretching the severe weather as far north as what they have indicated because the greatest parameters are further south.
The greatest severe risks will be damaging winds and hail..
Essentially a low pressure will be moving out of New Mexico towards the east with a warm front attached to it and this warm front will serve as the trigger for severe weather and rain across the area. This warm front will be followed by a cold front but this will be slow moving and not cross the region till Friday evening..So we could have two days to deal with severe weather across the region..
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