The above is the first 19 days of Feb ..just shy of being 3 weeks into the month. As you can see…the look of this map and the departures looks no different from November, December or January…
The moral of the story is that every single time a pattern change was signaled to occur by long range guidance it simply has not occurred..
Snowfall is well below normal ..in locations such as ABE without counting October towards the winter snowfall we are approximately 18 inches below normal.
Our original winter forecast we have already admitted that it was going to bust and bust horribly but we were in good company as the majority of winter forecasts busted just as badly.
When we did revise the winter forecast at the end of December and released on January 1st we did indeed nail it from that point on with the warmer then normal and less snowfall then normal. The original however…failed and failed bad but we will still do a actual verification at the end of March…
So where are we going from here? There are some main weather media outlets that are still talking about cold and snow and the pattern changing in March etc..Is this true? Or are these folks just holding out hope because there has been a lack of snow and a lack of cold and they just want this to occur? Or is there a chance that March will come out cold and snowier?
Well…if one has been following the GFS it was suggesting that things could indeed get snowier and colder. However…caution must be advised because we have seen the GFS do this ALL winter long and it has failed to materialize.
So lets look at the teleconnections to see where we are heading..
From the images above we see three things:
1. A positive Arctic oscillation
2. A negative Pacific North American Oscillation (PNA)
3. A positive North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO)
If you are a cold and a snow lover these signals are the complete opposite of what you want to see for cold and snow in the east.
These signals indicate at the very least a continuation of the pattern that we have had all winter along which is times of cooler then normal to seasonal weather in an over all above normal temperature regime.
When we look at the guidance we see that the ECM fits the teleconnections the best by showing an over all warmer pattern with the shots of cooler weather.
And then more into the longer range..
In the first set of images we would not be shocked to see temperatures near or into the 60s…and in the second set of images we would not be shocked to see temperatures in or around the 70 degree mark if the day 9 scenario were to verify as depicted..
Of course some may cling on to the GFS and what it shows as of 12 Z ..
However…if one were to look at the teleconnections above what we see indicated would be closer to the ECM in reality then the GFS. When looking at the GFS one has to remember in the long range it has a KNOWN cold bias.
The moral of the story is essentially spring has sprung but there will still be shots of cooler weather. For those in PA ..snow chances are dwindling down and we here think that the chances of seeing any significant east coast snowstorm in PA the rest of this winter is at around 10%.
There is a high likely hood that the rest of the winter season will continue to produce warmer then normal temperatures overall & continue with the below normal snowfall.
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