The above is the outlook for the 2012 Tropical Season for the Atlantic and the Eastern Seaboard.
The following is the AMO which is in its positive phase: (Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation)
Since the mid 1990's we have been in a warm phase of the AMO. Warm Phase of the AMO has been found to increase Atlantic Hurricanes along with there intensity due to the ocean temperatures being warmer then normal. It acts as a fuel aiding development of the Tropical Cyclones.
Latest ENSO models seem to indicate that we will be dealing with a neutral to a weak El Niño for the 2012 Tropical Season..
As you can see using the years of history from 1950-2001 ..in El Nino years (top image) there are indeed some land falling tropical systems. However, most would suggest recurve out over the Atlantic ocean. The bottom image (tracks in blue) is for a La Nina year and we do not think that this will be the case for this season.
Now when we look at the tracks for Neutral years things do indeed become a quite bit more interesting along the east coast.
So, even though we think that things will be less active compared to last year ..the tracks of the systems could be quite interesting compared to last season.
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