We are going to hold off on any discussion to go along with this map. For technical discussion see the previous blog in reference to the teleconnections and what they support.
Earlier in the afternoon on Sunday the NWS had issues a Hazardous Weather Outlook and was pretty bullish on a plowable snowfall along with some ice.
This was from that HWO
SNOW...SLEET AND FREEZING RAIN ARE EXPECTED WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY.
SIGNIFICANT SNOW/SLEET ACCUMULATIONS ARE LIKELY WITH A CHANCE THAT
SOME OF THE SNOW AND SLEET WILL FALL HEAVILY FOR A TIME WEDNESDAY.
THIS LOOKS TO HAVE POTENTIAL TO BE A PLOWABLE EVENT.
We had mentioned on our Facebook that we were not biting on to this nor in agreement with this. The teleconnections support a further north and warmer scenario then a further south and colder scenario..We felt that they jumped the gun and were to bullish..
We still feel that way..All the guidance tonight from the GFS to the UKMET to the GGEM to the ECM have come in much warmer aloft and at the surface as well…
We are issuing this scenario map. Keep in mind that even the area where we have as the best chance for snow and sleet accumulating may also change to rain…
The big cities such as KNYC look to be primarily rain. KPHL primarily rain.
NW NJ would be in the snow/sleet light blue category…
The problem has always been when you have a vertically stacked low going into the the Midwest towards the lakes region this never bodes well for the Northern Mid Atlantic region. You have southerly flow ahead with the Warm Air Advection Over running and any secondary that develops would develop either to late or too far north for the region.
The other issue is that there just is not any really cold air around with the NAO & AO + and a PNA on the decline.
What could go wrong?
When you are dealing with over running events …sometime to majority of the time the precipitation moves in faster then modeled. We actually took this in consideration when making this scenario map because the thermal profiles upper levels and lower levels are not as supportive of what we have pasted as a scenario. This scenario is subject to change and ..potentially not for the better for snow lovers in the Northern Mid Atlantic…
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