It is not very difficult to pick out the upper level low in the south central USA. This upper level low has been responsible for severe weather that past couple days as it has slowly been moving its way towards the east.
This low pressure area will go south of the PA /MD border focusing its heaviest rains just north and along its track. To the north of the heavy rain map we have created will be lighter rains but these locations will be under an inch of rain..
Severe weather outlook.
SPC has a slight risk issued for tomorrow..We however are not seeing this happening. SREF is not very impressed with severe weather. Today 3/22/12 thus far severe weather has been on the quiet side..
CAPE is not all that impressive either with generally 1000 or below.
Lift Index is generally 0 to –4
Lapse rates are 5.5 to 8.0..the steeper lapse rates in the further north portion of the low risk highlighted area (in yellow)
Shear will generally be 35 knots +
So because of the shear and the lapse rates we have issued a low risk for areas that we think have the greatest potential of severe weather meaning winds and or hail..
We think the greatest threat from this system will be the heavy rains. While general thunderstorms are possible just about anywhere within the rain shield ..severe weather we do not expect to be a widespread problem.. Clouds and convective rains will keep the potential on the lower side..
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