Weather Discussion
Upper level low will be cut off across the NM/AZ area..An area of low pressure at the surface with an associated cold front will begin to move towards the region Thursday morning... By evening time this front will had crossed the area and any severe threat will have diminished..
Severe Parameters
CAPE 500-2000
Lift Index 0 to - 6
Lapse rates 6.0-7.0
Shear 40 + knots..
EHI is above 1 but this would be across eastern part of TX where we feel the best area for tornado potential would be..EHI further to the west is just not in place..
Severe Parameters in place are certainly supportive of Severe weather potential.. The cold front serving as the trigger..
Temperatures will be in the 60-80 degree range and behind the front would be in the 30-60 range depending where you reside in the risk zones.
Whenever you have this kind of temperature differential in a 24 hr. period..Severe weather is a pretty good potential..
Adding to this is dew points will be in the 60s so it will definitely be a moist warm atmosphere ahead of the cold front..
The main over all threat though would appear to be Hail. These thunderstorms will initiate but before they turn super cell potential ..they have a good chance of being over come by the cold front..never the less with the EHI in the region we mentioned we have included that tornado potential..
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