Potential Still High On The Table For The Week Of December 11th

While the December 5th event has not panned out for north of the WV and VA area…as that system is sliding to the south..the potential still is on the table for December 11th onwards.

At this time range we generally do not like to look to the operational runs of the models because they will change significantly in the medium range… Instead we rather turn to the Ensemble means and for the purpose of this discussion alot more emphasis will be placed on the European Computer Model because it still clearly beats out the GFS & its ensembles.

Now, on the GFS model what one relatively is seeing is a Miller B type solution and if you notice it is also pretty slow in moving out the system up along the coast. Meanwhile at the same time frame we will look at the ECM model which we will place the most emphasis on and instead of the operational run we will look at its ensemble means.

These are the ensemble mean images from the 12 Z ECM and as one can plainly see we are looking at as well a Miller B solution but a solution where the 850s are certainly supportive of frozen precipitation the storm system is right off the coast of NJ.

Now the question becomes..are we looking at two separate storms in this time period or are we looking at one storm that is slow to move out and gets backed up due to the blocking that is currently in place?

Now, its hard to say without the in between hours but the means do not really show anything to suggest that there is another system dropping in from anywhere to make a second storm between 192 hrs and 216 hrs.

So what we could be looking at is two different scenarios.

1. Scenario # 1 is a piece of energy drops down from Canada into the Ohio Valley area and spawns a secondary off the coast of NJ..perhaps around the Delmarva area and then moves off the coast ..which then would be followed up by a 2nd storm..origin would be a little hard to figure out ..but that also could end up being similar to the first system.

2. We could be dealing with a system that drops down from Canada into the ohio valley and then reforms off the coast of NJ and begins to deepen rapidly while slowly moving away from the region.

Either scenario at this point is possible & I would not rule either one out but the one thing that is clear according to the means is that it would be cold enough to support frozen precipitation and then there after the storm it will only get colder.

So indeed some very interesting times are ahead & we will be monitoring and tracking this situation for you!

December 4th Daily Discussion

The high temperature on December 3rd was 40 degrees. This was once again below normal!

Today is going to be another partly to mostly cloudy day across the region and just about anywhere in the Northeast there will be a chance of some snowshowers or snow squalls. As you go into Maine however it will be more in the way of steady precipitation in the form of snow and rain on the coast. This is more from a retrograding area of low pressure.

There is a clipper off to the west of the region ..however this clipper should pass to the south of the region. However..we here at Real Wx Services are keeping an eye on it to make sure that it has no surprises in store for the region.

Temperatures today look to be on the colder side once again with highs mainly in the 30s with some lower 40s possible in some locations. Particularly around the east coast of Maine.

Note: As of 3 AM eastern standard time ..the forum host that provides the R.W.S forum went down. This is something at this point and time beyond my control. Sorry for any inconveniences of the site being down.

December 3rd Daily Weather Discussion

High temperature on December 2nd @ KABE was 40 degrees which was below normal..and pretty much this pattern is going to persist for the near future and thru the medium range as well.

As far as weather is concerned its going to be a partly cloudy day with the chance of snowshowers mainly across the western regions of the NE area ..from western PA Northwards with perhaps some rain showers along the coast of Maine.

Temperatures today will once again be in the 30s to the lower 40s. One thing is certain it is starting to feel more like winter.

December 11-12 Winter Storm Possibility!

No, you are not going to see Real Wx Service start talking about having to break out the Big Daddy Hats and you are not going to see us going crazy and talking about a EPIC Blockbuster event-However you will see us talk about potential possibilities and that is just what this is about!

For two consecutive runs the European Computer Model has been indicating the potential for a Major East Coast Storm. It started with last nights 00z ECM which had the necessary ingredients in place : such as a 50/50 low..some fresh arctic air..west based - NAO and what looks like a hybrid Miller A that would be making its way up the east coast. These are those images:

Today the 12 Z ECM keeps a storm in this time range with a little different solution. Low pressure forms in TX with precipitation breaking out in the plains but there is some ridging out ahead of this system and ultimately it ends up still being a hybrid system as one low cuts up towards the lakes and dissipates while another forms over GA. We still have cold air in place..the negative NAO is still in place..however not as strong as it is now but by 216 hrs it starts to drop again ...and we still have a 50/50 low in place..and a 1032 High pressure parked in place nearby as well. By 234 hours there is precipitation into the Northern Mid Atlantic and the 850s and freezing line in the vicinity of the PA/MD line ..by 240 hours their is now a secondary over Western NC but verbatim it would be rain from I 80 south...
Here are those images..

However if the ingredients such as the 50/50 low are in place as shown and the high pressure over the region with the fresh arctic air and a -NAO ..it would be quite difficult for this storm to cut to the lakes..even if a secondary forms.
So this seems like a period that has some potential behind it and we will continue to track and follow this and see if it indeed becomes a real threat.

December 5th Time Period-Level 1 Remains

Yesterday we posted the following :

What do we need to happen to either make this a more potent storm or make this a storm that would effect more people?

1. We need the S/W to come north by about 100 miles

2. We need the S/W to be even more potent that is dropping thru the central plains.

3. We need less confluence in the NE

4. We need that ULL to be weaker and further north..

If these things happen then we could be talking about an earlier phase and a different beast of a sustem.

After the 00z model solutions ..we have the following:

1. The S/W on every model solution has actually come south of its earlier positions. So the opposite of what we need to happen in order for this to effect areas further north. (Not sure i am buying this actually happening and will explain why in the next section after the first 4 earlier points are covered.

2. The S/W has actually de-amplified on all guidance with the exception of the 00z ECM which the S/W was actually a little stronger aloft. SO, again, guidance not heading the direction that we would want to see happen.

3. Confluence in the NE also has not become any less of an influence with the exception of the ECM where the trough is not quite as deep and is flattened out a bit more then prior.

4. The ULL or Vortex has not become any weaker on any of the guidance and in some cases (ECM) has become stronger.

Back to point # 1 . The reason that I am having a hard time buying this clipper dropping so far south is because it is not actually a clipper originating in Canada..where it would have that momentum but rather coming from the Pacific.

Usually when they originate from the Pacific they do not move South or south east but rather in a more west to east type of fashion. So this is going to be something that is going to have to be nowcasted to see if it indeed does drop so far south or move more west to east.

Right now it appears as the best area for precipitation would be south of DC. Things could change but time is beginning to run out. However…last year we had systems modeled like this that changed within 36 hours and less. So in that sense, perhaps there is more time but a very narrow window!

Level 1 will remain in place as it appears that there will indeed be a light snow event ..just what specific region still in question and it also looks like downeast Maine will be effected as well with this system, as the system explodes offshore and then retrogrades.

Stay tuned for the next update!

December 2nd Daily Weather Discussion

High temperature on December 1st was 64 degrees @ KABE! This is more then likely the last time you are going to see temperatures that warm for some time.

Today is going to be much colder across vast majority of the region with partly cloudy skies with some snowshowers possible in the usually favored Lake Effect regions and across Maine there is going to be some heavy rain early that could change to snow or snowshowers late after noon into the evening.

Temperatures today are going to be much colder across majority of the region as well with highs out ahead of the cold front in the mid to upper 40s but dropping thru the day and in the 30s to lower 40s elsewheres!

Word of caution if the  00z ECM is correct…its going to get colder with highs in the big cities struggling to get out of the 20s and lows below 0 in the interior regions by next thursday!

Real Wx Services Keeps Level 1 Alert But Extends Date From Dec 5-10th

We here at Real Wx Services have been analyzing the models for the past several days in relation to this time period. Prior update essentially laid out what the different model runs were doing and we also laid out why this pattern & any systems within this pattern are going to be so complicated to figure out.

Tonight we had a new set of model runs to analyze and essentially the differences stand out in stark contrast between the GFS & the ECM. 

Tonight the GFS is still putting too much emphasis on the retrograding area of  low pressure near  Maine. However…some improvements could be noted with a stronger ridge out west and slightly deeper trough in the east and a little more potent on the S/W we are all watching.

However..other then those improvements the GFS continues to essentially dampen out the clipper and it only manages to provide some light snow or flurries in parts of the region.

Now lets look at the ECM ..

Some major changes on the ECM tonight. First notable change comes in between 78-84 hours where the S/W in the central plains states is much deeper and faster as well. Next noticeable improvement is the trough is deeper across the Ohio Valley and the ULL is further north and weaker. (The feature that the GFS is stronger with) Next thing that occurs is around 102 hours as the trough starts to take on a negative tilt.  Another major difference between the GFS and ECM..because at this point and time the GFS has that completely flat. One the low pressure gets to about Cape Hatteras it starts to phase…while at that time the H 5 is closed off over Central Va. Around 114 hours you can see the Polar Vortex starting to phase in as well. Then it moves ENE before hooking back into effect New England.

This was a complete turn around from the 12 Z run..however..its not like we have not seen this type of scenario on the ECM before. It was basically the same type of scenario when it showed the solution where it hooked into New England after leaving about 3-6 inches from the PA/MD border south while leaving PA to NYC essentially in the screw zone with only an inch or two. So this is once again that solution however this go around the S/W is more potent.

So at this point and time we have a system that effects the south with a snow event from about NC North to DC (lighter at DC) and then misses PA to NYC and then retrogrades back into New England.

What do we need to happen to either make this a more potent storm or make this a storm that would effect more people?

1. We need the S/W to come north by about 100 miles

2. We need the S/W to be even more potent that is dropping thru the central plains.

3. We need less confluence in the NE

4. We need that ULL to be weaker and further north..

If these things happen then we could be talking about an earlier phase and a different beast of a sustem.

The good news is …there is still time yet…for these improvements to happen. The S/W that is responsible that comes thru the rockies is still in the North Central pacific which is a sparse data region.

I believe we will still see more changes to this system before the time comes.

Due to the above happening Level 1 will continue …Now we all know what to look for on the next model runs!

Stay tuned!