January 7th Winter Storm Update! 00z GFS and 00z ECM are posted up above. Taking a look at the 00z GFS tonight it appears to have two high pressures to the north of the system which continue to show a strong CAD signature. Despite the GFS still keeping the primary on the strong side..despite the GFS developing the secondary too far north...it still continues to signal a Wintry Weather solution for those that are primarily N & W of I-95. Operational GFS develops the secondary to the north of Mass..while the GFS ensembles deepen it south of Mass.Looking at tonights ECM..it has fine tuned some from the 12 Z run which showed the Primary heading into Wisconsin. I realized that was wrong this morning so tonights ECM is no surprise that it jumped back South and East. The ECM is also colder then it was at 12 Z and is also signifying a wintery storm in the same regions.
00z NAM which i do not have posted has the same general concept as the rest of guidance with one exception..the 00z NAM develops the secondary off of the Delmarva and moves it NE from there.
So as you can see from reading above we are still not in model harmony for this event and likely will not be until under 24 hours. 00z tomorrow night. Thats the analysis.
I am going to follow this post with two more posts tonight. The next post coming will be my thoughts generally on what I see happening at this point and time. The second will be the teleconnectors. Look for them in about 20 minutes!
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