This is a heads up to all those that read this blog about the potential for a winter storm for tuesday night into wednesday. The ingredients are pretty much set in place to set the stage for what could become a significant ice storm across the State of PA into NW NJ....
As you can clearly see the ECM as it is getting in its short range has come even more South and East of its previous run and colder then its previous run. Also the GFS after its horrendous 18 Z fluke run has also come back to the same idea of showing CAD across the region.
Now it has been expressed that there is no way that there could be CAD in this situation.
Let me clearly explain what is happening ... Currently in place we have what is known as Greenland blocking. We also currently have a very negative NAO. A rising PNA. All these together spell confluence over the Northeast and the Great Lakes provided by the high pressures to the North. These highs should only trend stronger with time.
Essentially what should happen is the primary will head out of the Mississippi Valley up the western side of the Appalachians. This primary will hit the confluence and will be forced to hand off to a secondary area of low pressure. Where that secondary area of low pressure tracks will be key. Also where the secondary area forms.
As it stands currently the area is looking at a significant ice storm potentially. Stay tuned for further information!
No comments:
Post a Comment