Let me us the 18 Z UKMET as an example here...
This is at 48 hours and this is the main reason I am not buying the NAM and the UKMET solutions tonight.
Now mind you i have been seeing this same set up for 84+ hours now on the models....
What you are looking at there is a strong arctic high to your NW.
An extension of that high to another high to the north in Canada that stretches into Southeastern Canada.
And then look to your east and you see another massive high pressure area.
Now notice how all three areas of high pressure are linked together.
They are literally showing a block..thats right i said block...
This low has no choice but to be closer to the coast because it can not escape off to the east very well. So..this storm is going to end up closer to the coast and that is the reason I have been so persistent on my thoughts.
Now if you notice with that type of scenario this is going to be a long lasting duration event..probably a sunday night into tuesday. Its coming from the gulf of mexico. So there is going to be abundant moisture...then once it hits the coastline it is going to tap in Atlantic Moisture. So we are going to be talking about copious amounts of moisture. Temperatures are going to be freezing or below freezing because of this NW arctic high that is pressing in. There will be a sharp cut off to the precipitation. I believe in PA it will look something like this....
Western PA=lighter snows
Central Pa = moderate snow
Eastern Pa = heavier snows.
Now that is not because i live in eastern PA but rather because this is a coastal low. So despite the deepness that this low obtains..its going to contain copious amounts of moisture. Ratios due to the cold will be greater then 10:1. Higher the further north...
I am not going to be bold enough to make predictions quite yet...but the potential is quite significant
No comments:
Post a Comment