Flashbacks

Blizzard of 1996....
Why do I bring this particular storm up?

For starters it was the most significant snowstorm in this area since i can remember forecasting the weather. However..more importantly is how the models handled this Blizzard...
Taking a trip back down memory lane. The GFS first showed a Blizzard occurring along the east coast in its long range. As well as the ECM..However..both models essentially lost the storm. About a week out both models brought back the storm. With some differences. The GFS showed the storm missing the region to the south and the east and most of your local weather outlets bought into that solution hook line and sinker. I remember the day before WFMZ calling for snowshowers and flurries. Meanwhile the ECM brought back the storm and showed it as a crippling blizzard 7-8 days in advance. From that point on the ECM never lost the storm...
Flash forward to February of 2009. The GFS in the long range also showed a huge storm (snow) effecting the east coast into the northeast. The ECM also showed this storm as well. The GFS has now for the past 5-6 runs taken this storm off to the south and east and once again not effecting the region.
Meanwhile the ECM for its past several days of runs has showed a HECS or a Historical East Coast Snowstorm....

So as a forecaster of weather and you have people depending on you for your thoughts..which model do you choose to believe?
Well if history is repeating itself the ECM was the model to follow in 96 and the ECM will be the model to follow in 2009 of february.
So could we be dealing with a Historical East Coast snowstorm? ECM has consistently been saying yes we will. GFS is saying not a chance at this point and time.
The cards are laid on the table ..all that is left is too see how this is going to play out. Stay tuned for further information...