Its amazing to me how this storm looks so much like a carbon copy of this last system that came thru. Then again it should not be all that surprising because there really was not much space in between this last storm and the pattern that was in shape then. Not to mention the teleconnections when i went back and checked on them last night had not really changed all that much.
To get that big storm the models were showing a positive PNA. Problem lies in a positive PNA was never forecasted to occur according to CDC...
A positive PNA would have been a positive factor because it would have allowed a ridge on to the west coast and a trough on the east which would have enabled energy coming down from Canada to dig deeper into the base of the trough. That is not happening.
What I looked for next was the EPO. While it is true that we have a -EPO which will help to keep the SE ridge at bay, due to climate that factor by itself is not enough to depend on the cold air "pressing" behind the system to help carve out that trough. So instead of a + PNA trough on the east coast..we end up more with a -EPO trough which just does not allow enough digging for amplification of the system in question.
So what we have instead is a Clipper dropping down from Montana. This clipper will move ESE thru Iowa and then continue essentially along the same track this last storm just took. Kind of a wash, rinse, repeat. The winners once again this go around will be the State of Maine .
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