We are approximately within 24 hrs of the event and the models seem to have a consensus on the track and precipitation types etc...
Low pressure currently over EC colorado should continue to track East before moving off to the ENE...
I am still not 100% convince that this low pressure will track to the great lakes as being shown on the models today as of 12 Z....
My thinking more or less is that we will track due east over northern ohio into NW PA and the ENE from there off the coast of Southern New England...
Unfortunately this track will cause a southerly flow ahead of the system. Lack of strong confluence and our 50/50 low never materializing in the right spot will cause the WAA to overspread the area resulting in precipitation breaking out sometime tomorrow morning. However..the steadier & heavier precipitation will move in in the afternoon....
Snowfall totals are explained on the map..In PA outside of the poconos that have the best chance of picking up 1-3 inches ..I would not count on much more then a T-1 inch.
Further north you go into the pink area ..3-6 inches could occur with the highest amounts inland, away from the coast..Along the coast more likely 1-3.
Further north from there into the blue area. This should be primarily snow with 6-12 inches possible. Even in these areas sleet may mix in.
I will continue to monitor the latest situation thru out the day and later tonight.
No comments:
Post a Comment