Alright after looking at the models and seeing what they are outputting the map below is based on the ensembles of the GFS and the NAM for the temperatures. Temperatures were not all that different between the NAM and the GFS.
So what is going on? Currently we have the primary precisely modeled to be where it was suppose to be. You can see this when looking at the pressure map. The primary though is slightly weaker then what it was modeled to be. Its in the range of 1008-1010. The GFS had it at 1007 at this point and the NAM had it at 1006. What happened before this storm headed towards the lakes is that the energy dug to the south quite far. This is relatively important that it allows the secondary to form further to the south.
Current thinking is the primary should weaken over time and begin to hand off to the secondary. Where does this secondary begin to form?
Its my opinion that this secondary low is going to form over Virginia. This secondary will then begin to move NE. The question that has to be answered is where does this secondary begin to bomb? Well that question can only be answered ONCE we see where the secondary begins to develop. We can use the models as guidance..but pretty many of us know that they are not gospel. So it will be important to check pressure falls and future pressure falls as these will give us a clue as to where the secondary is going to develop and also when....
Once this secondary develops it should start to deepen rather quickly. I am thinking right now this secondary will start to deepen once it goes off the coast around southern NJ. The temperature differences between land and water should cause rapid intensification..
With all the above said....here is my final map
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