A Look At Oct 12-14 2009

Let me start this off by saying at the moment I am not taking any model solution as the correct solution for this time period. This storm system is going to be dependant on several factors. What we are watching is pieces of energy that will be dropping down out of Canada into the midwest.
How far this system is able to dig to the south will be dependant on how far south the first cold front gets that passes thru the region on Friday night! How far south this cold front progresses will depend on how strong the first push of colder air is behind the cold front. Now, its a given that cold air is denser and far heavier then warm air. This enables the colder air to sink further to the south. So the timing of this colder air becomes important and how far south this cold front proceeds because that then will act as the boundary between the colder air and the warmer air.
Currently, the energy is in a sparse data region and thus is the reason that I am not taking any model depiction as the actual solution. Once the energy gets in better sounding area we should be able to start to get a better picture as far as how far south this energy will dig.
Meanwhile, looking at the teleconnections from the latest guidance...I am only going to post the 12 Z ECM because the 12 Z GFS is also quite similar with what the teleconnections are.
Above is the PNA & the EPO..As you can see at this time frame the PNA is quite positive while the EPO is also negative. This tells me that, if these connections are correct then there should be a bigger ridge in the west and a deeper trough along the east. This tells me that the cold front should be able to progress further to the south and the cold air should be stronger. The NAO is also negative -neutral at this time period. The AO is also negative...
The above combination of teleconnections tells me that this cold air is going to be quite strong for this time of the year and with the denseness of it should be able to push quite far to the south which should allow this boundary to stall further to the south. This also tells me that this system should be more suppressed as it develops. At the current thinking..the energy that dives south out of Canada and the more suppressed solution the transfer of energy potentially could occur off the Delmarva coast and then proceed from there to move off to the ENE or NE.
Again, the above is based on what the teleconnections actually would suggest and is highly dependent on how far south the cold front makes it before it stalls and becomes the boundary.
Exciting times ahead & one thing I am becoming certain on here is that some areas north of 40 N will pick up there first snowfall of the season.